Countries in northern Africa, Asia and the Middle East that depend heavily on wheat imports risk suffering significant food insecurity because of Russia’s war in Ukraine. The conflict is likely to drive up already soaring food prices in much of the world, the Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warned on Friday.

Ukraine and Russia, known as the “breadbasket of the world”, account for one-third of global grain exports. The two countries together supply 52% of the world’s sunflower oil exports. They also account for 19% of the world’s barley supply, 14% of wheat and 4% of corn.

With the conflict’s intensity and duration uncertain, “the likely disruptions to agricultural activities of these two major exporters of staple commodities could seriously escalate food insecurity globally, when international food and input prices are already high and vulnerable,” said Qu Dongyu, director-general of the UN agency, FAO.

Russia, facing a string of economic sanctions, is also the lead producer of fertilizer, and a key fertilizer component, Urea. The price of the component has jumped more than threefold in price in the last 12 months.

There’s also the uncertainty over whether Ukraine’s wheat that is ready in June can be harvested as “massive population displacement has reduced the number of agricultural laborers and workers. Accessing agricultural fields would be difficult,″ Qu noted.

Ukraine’s ports on the Black Sea are closed. The government this week banned the export of wheat, oats, millet, buckwheat and some other food products to prevent a crisis in the country. The ban does not apply to its major global exports of corn and sunflower oil.

The United States, Argentina and other wheat-producing nations are likely to limit exports as governments seek to ensure domestic supply, Qu said.

Countries that depend on Russian and Ukrainian wheat are likely to increase imports. Egypt, Turkey, Bangladesh and Iran buy 60% of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine. Also heavily reliant are Lebanon, Tunisia, Yemen, Libya and Pakistan.

The COVID-19 pandemic has already impacted global food security. Last year alone, global prices of wheat and barley rose 31%, and rapeseed and sunflower oil prices jumped by more than 60%. Wheat prices rose more than 50% since a week before the invasion.
-AP