PARIS: Scientist claim that if policies adopted during the Covid pandemic continue, it could lead to a significant reduction in the emission of carbon dioxide, which is dangerously polluting the atmosphere.
Between 2019 and 2020, global carbon dioxide emissions experienced the largest single year-on-year decline ever recorded — 6.3 per cent — dwarfing dips during both the global financial crisis of 2008, and the estimated decline following the end of World War II.
If we could continue that trend every year, we'd be able to limit warming to around 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to the international team of scientists, who published their findings today in Nature Geoscience.
"Those equivalent units in the economy that shut down [during COVID], those units need to be switched to the zero carbon economy." said study co-author Pep Canadell from the CSIRO.
While the economy contracted markedly during 2020, that does not need to be the case in order to reduce global emissions, Dr Canadell said.
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, signatory countries pledged to limit global temperature increase this century to below 2C, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5C.
But since then, substantial research has highlighted the stark increase in risk as warming exceeds 1.5C.
The researchers were able to create a dataset of daily emissions for the year 2020, based on activity data and fluctuations in activity for each sector.
They found the biggest factor in reducing emissions was the decrease in ground transport — cars and freight — which accounted for just under a third of the cut.
The initial wave of COVID-19 in the first half of 2020, which resulted in broad "stay-at-home orders, closure of factories, collapse of air traffic and perturbations of supply chains", saw the greatest drop in CO2 production compared to the equivalent period in 2019.
For a single week in April, when many regions were under strict lockdowns and industrial and aviation activity was limited, it was estimated that 17 per cent less carbon dioxide emissions were pumped into the atmosphere, compared to the same week the previous year.
In the latter half of 2020, emissions rebounded back to near 2019 levels, and subsequent COVID waves and resulting restrictions on activity only saw minor falls.
Brazil and the US saw the biggest drops as a proportion of their overall carbon dioxide emissions in 2020 — 9.7 per cent and 9.5 per cent respectively — while China saw its emissions increase by 0.9 per cent, according to the data.
The researchers suggest China's continued growth was due to its relatively short lockdown periods and rapid recovery back to full production capacity.
- ABC