WASHINGTON: Administration officials say the White House has dropped its optimism about the midterm elections and is concerned that Democrats could lose control of both chambers of Congress.
Recent polls have shown Democrats who once had comfortable leads in some Senate races on a knife's edge, and Senate elections that were considered toss-ups between the two parties now leaning Republican as high inflation persists.
Losing control of one or both houses of Congress will profoundly shape the next two years of Joe Biden's presidency, with Republicans expected to block legislation on family leave, abortion, policing and other Biden priorities while pushing new laws to curb immigration and spending, using the debt ceiling as leverage.
Republicans are also expected to launch investigations into Democratic spending and the business dealings and private life of the president's son Hunter. Some lawmakers say they hope to impeach Biden, his cabinet members or Vice President Kamala Harris.
Biden predicted in May that his fellow Democrats would make gains in both the House and Senate, but he acknowledged last week that the race has tightened.
The White House, while realistic, has stuck publicly to that message of hope.
"The president and his advisers feel that we have a strong shot at keeping both chambers and are focused on doing all they can to capitalize on how much Republicans are playing into our hands – including by saying their top priority is to worsen inflation with a tax giveaway to the wealthy," one Biden adviser said.
Legislative wins from June and an August vote in Kansas rejecting efforts to remove abortion protections from the state's constitution led Democrats to believe voters were rejecting Republican policy priorities.
Some analysis shows that Republican-led states have as high or higher murder rates as those led by Democrats, Ipsos polling this month showed U.S. voters prefer Republicans over Democrats for solving crime problems.
The White House has failed to leverage a spate of legislative successes on climate, infrastructure and expanded social benefits into higher favorability ratings for Biden, Democratic strategists in battleground states say.
Some Democrats say they wanted to see Biden hit the road more often, highlighting how these policies have impacted local voters. But candidates in some crucial races have also chosen to campaign without Biden, pushing the White House to significantly scale back their planned presence in competitive areas around the country in the weeks leading up to the race, according to an official.