During next week's meeting between Blinken and his Chinese counterpart in Beijing, there will be plenty to disagree about, including Taiwan and chips. But they'll be asking the same question: How can the world's two largest economies avoid a new Cold War?
Relations between the superpowers have deteriorated over the past few years, reaching their lowest point in decades last August when Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the time, visited Taiwan. This visit sparked unprecedented Chinese military exercises close to the self-governing island.
Since then, the administration of President Joe Biden has stated that it seeks to create a "floor for the relationship" and prevent rivalry from degenerating into hostilities. In November, Biden met with Chinese President Xi Jinping with this objective in mind, and both men committed to having more frequent communications.
A suspected Chinese spy balloon has been flying over the United States for a few days, according to the Pentagon, complicating matters. Washington has been tracking the balloon ever since it entered American airspace, the Pentagon added.
It was unclear right away how the incident would affect Blinken's trip, during which he was scheduled to meet with Qin Gang, the Chinese foreign minister, and perhaps Xi.
The increased regulatory pressure coming from the United States against China, including export restrictions that may cripple its chip manufacturing sector, is another major source of tension.
Analysts believe Blinked's main goal during the meetings on February 5–6 will be to ensure that both countries can avoid a crisis in light of a new agreement between the United States and the Philippines that will give the United States more access to military bases and a potential trip to Taiwan by new House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
He stated at a CSIS briefing on the visit that "really this is about re-establishing the undergirding of the relationship and putting in place some procedures and mechanisms to be able to manage through some of the tensions in the relationship."
In order to focus on its economy, which has been harmed by the now-abandoned zero-COVID policy and neglected by foreign investors concerned about what they perceive to be a return of state intervention in the market, China is also eager for a stable U.S.-China relationship.
Xi has met with world leaders in recent months in an effort to repair relationships and resolve differences, including with Australia, which will restart coal exports to China after a three-year hiatus. His "wolf warrior" diplomats, whose vehement rhetoric alienated many of China's trading partners, have also been sidelined.
This diplomatic song and dance have been seen before, according to Craig Singleton, Senior Fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies. The COVID crisis in China, which continues to be his top priority, can be resolved much more easily with the help of Xi's professed peace offerings. Blinken's trip to China will mark the first by a secretary of state since Mike Pompeo met Wang Yi in Beijing in October 2018 while serving in the Trump administration, exchanging sharp words amid an escalating trade war.
Joining him will be Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman.
Low anticipation exists for the journey. While Blinken will bring up U.S. concerns about Beijing's "no-limits" partnership with Russia, which the two nations announced weeks before Moscow's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, no progress is likely to be made on this or other important issues like Taiwan, trade, or human rights. Indeed, the administration's options are limited in light of the increasingly hawkish U.S. Congress. The Republican-controlled House established a China select committee last month with the goal of containing Beijing's expanding global influence.
Even there, progress might be stagnating because Beijing is reportedly seeking concessions in unrelated fields, such as loosening American semiconductor export restrictions in exchange for greater co-operation on the illegal fentanyl supply coming from China, according to one source.
"[Beijing] is attempting to link cooperation with other wholly unrelated issues, much like it has on other issues. Another source familiar with the administration's thinking added that China has rejected Washington's "very specific" demands, calling the situation "more than deeply frustrating." "proposals.
According to sources, Blinken may specifically bring up the cases of American citizens Kai Li, David Lin, and Mark Swidan who the United States claims are wrongfully detained in China, but it is unlikely that he will be able to immediately secure their release.