The conflict in Sudan, which involves forces loyal to two top generals, is threatening the stability of the nation and could have consequences beyond its borders. Both sides have significant resources, including tens of thousands of fighters and foreign backers, which could prolong the conflict and lead to devastation similar to that seen in other Middle Eastern and African countries. The violence has already resulted in the deaths of hundreds of people and left millions trapped in urban areas, where they are seeking shelter from gunfire, explosions and looting. This article examines the situation and its potential impact outside of Sudan.

Who are the parties involved in the fighting?

In Sudan, there is a power struggle between Gen. Abdel Fattah Burhan, the head of the armed forces, and Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, who leads the paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces, which originated from Darfur's Janjaweed militias. Both generals are vying for control of Sudan, which has put the nation at risk of collapse. This situation arises two years after they jointly carried out a military coup and thwarted a transition to democracy that began after protests in 2019 led to the removal of longtime autocrat Omar al-Bashir. Negotiations were in progress in recent months to restore the democratic transition.

The outcome of the ongoing fighting in Sudan could determine who becomes the country's next president, with the losing side facing potential exile, arrest or death. If the conflict persists, it could lead to a protracted civil war or even a division of Sudan into rival factions. Alex De Waal, an expert on Sudan at Tufts University, warned in a recent memo to colleagues that the conflict should be viewed as "the first round of a civil war." He added that if the fighting is not swiftly resolved, it could escalate into a multi-level conflict involving regional and international actors vying for their own interests and potentially deploying troops or proxies.

What are the implications of the fighting in Sudan for its neighboring countries?

Sudan, which spans across the Nile River, is the third-largest country in Africa in terms of land area. The country shares the river with neighboring powerhouses Egypt and Ethiopia, which makes for a complex and uneasy relationship. Egypt, with a population of over 100 million, heavily relies on the Nile to sustain its people. Meanwhile, Ethiopia is constructing a massive dam upstream that has raised concerns and tensions in both Cairo and Khartoum.

Sudan is the third-largest country in Africa and stretches across the Nile River, which it shares with Egypt and Ethiopia. Egypt has a strong relationship with Sudan's military as it considers it an ally against Ethiopia. While Cairo has tried to mediate between the two sides in Sudan to reach a cease-fire, it is unlikely to remain neutral if the military faces defeat.

Sudan shares borders with five other countries, including Libya, Chad, the Central African Republic, Eritrea, and South Sudan, which gained independence in 2011, taking 75% of Khartoum's oil resources. These neighboring countries are themselves entangled in internal conflicts, with rebel groups operating along the porous borders.

Alan Boswell, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, believes that the impact of the fighting in Sudan will not be limited to the country itself. He says, "What happens in Sudan will not stay in Sudan... Chad and South Sudan are at immediate risk of potential spillover, but prolonged fighting could lead to significant external intervention."

Which foreign powers have a vested interest in Sudan?

In recent years, the Horn of Africa has been a focal point for Arab Gulf countries as they seek to expand their influence in the region. The United Arab Emirates, a rising military power with a presence in both the Middle East and East Africa, has strong connections with the Rapid Support Forces. These forces sent troops to support the UAE and Saudi Arabia in their conflict against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Russia has a long-standing ambition to construct a naval base in Port Sudan that can accommodate up to 300 troops and four ships. Port Sudan lies on a vital trading route in the Red Sea that facilitates energy shipments to Europe. The Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary organization with close links to the Kremlin, has been active in Sudan since 2017. They have expanded their presence across Africa in recent years. The United States and the European Union have imposed sanctions on two gold mining companies in Sudan that are linked to Wagner and accused of smuggling.

What is the involvement of Western countries?

During the 1990s, Sudan hosted Osama bin Laden and other militants, which led to the country being ostracized internationally. This was during the time when al-Bashir's hard-line Islamist government was in power.

Sudan's isolation intensified in the 2000s when the conflict in Darfur broke out. Sudanese forces and the Janjaweed were accused of committing atrocities while suppressing a local rebellion, leading to the International Criminal Court charging al-Bashir with genocide.

In 2020, the U.S. removed Sudan from its list of state sponsors of terrorism after the Khartoum government agreed to establish diplomatic ties with Israel.

However, the 2021 military coup resulted in the suspension of billions of dollars in loans and aid, exacerbating the already struggling economy. This, coupled with the war in Ukraine and global inflation, has caused Sudan's economy to plummet.

Is it possible for foreign powers to take any action to halt the conflict?

Sudan's current economic challenges may present an opportunity for Western countries to leverage economic sanctions to exert pressure on both sides to end the conflict. However, similar to other African nations with valuable resources, armed groups in Sudan have been able to enrich themselves by engaging in the opaque trade of rare minerals and other natural resources.
Dagalo, who used to be a camel herder from Darfur, now possesses vast livestock and gold mining operations. He is also believed to have received significant compensation from Gulf nations for the RSF's support in Yemen against Iran-aligned rebels.

The military in Sudan has a significant hold on the economy, and they have the support of wealthy businessmen in Khartoum and along the Nile who profited from al-Bashir's long reign. These businessmen consider the RSF to be unsophisticated warriors from rural areas.

De Waal stated that the control over political funds would be as critical as the battlefield. The military would aim to take possession of gold mines and smuggling routes, while the RSF would try to disrupt major transportation arteries such as the road between Port Sudan and Khartoum.

Numerous parties are interested in mediating the conflict, including the U.S., the U.N., the European Union, Egypt, Gulf countries, the African Union, and IGAD, an eastern African bloc consisting of eight countries. However, the large number of potential mediators may make peace negotiations more complex than the war itself.

According to De Waal, the external mediators run the risk of becoming a traffic jam without a traffic officer.