TOKYO —Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is set to visit South Korea on Tuesday for a summit with President Yoon Suk Yeol aimed at enhancing cooperation on security and critical minerals used in batteries. The two leaders are scheduled to hold a summit and joint press conference on Wednesday, followed by an official dinner.
This marks the first visit by a Canadian leader in nine years and commemorates the 60th anniversary of bilateral relations between the two countries.
During the visit, both sides are expected to issue a joint statement outlining their partnership for the next 60 years. This information was shared by Yoon's deputy national security advisor, Kim Tae-hyo.
Daniel Sneider, an East Asia lecturer at Stanford University, suggests that Tokyo and Seoul are aware of their dependence on the U.S. President Joe Biden administration's global and regional priorities for their national and political survival.
The recent thaw in relations between the two countries, including back-to-back summits by their leaders and an invitation for South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol to attend the G-7 talks in Hiroshima, reflects this understanding.
Additionally, Japan has agreed to South Korea's request to send an expert team to visit the Fukushima nuclear power plant to assess preparations for the release of treated but still slightly radioactive wastewater into the ocean later this month.
During the G-7 summit, which will be held from Friday to Sunday, leaders including Kishida, Yoon, and Biden, plan to strengthen their nascent relationship while also urging the world's most powerful leaders to enhance defense cooperation in response to China and North Korea's expanding military activities in the region.
Historically, contentious issues have plagued Seoul and Tokyo, such as the dispute over wartime compensation for Korean victims of forced labor by Japanese companies. In 2018, South Korean court rulings ordering Japanese companies to compensate the victims worsened relations between the two countries, leading to disagreements over trade and military cooperation.
While Japan maintains that all compensation issues were settled by a 1965 treaty that normalized relations, this issue continues to strain bilateral ties.
Yoon's meetings with Kishida occurred after his government announced a domestically unpopular plan in March to use South Korean corporate funds to compensate forced laborers. The objective was to prevent the liquidation of Japanese companies' local assets by the courts, which could further damage diplomatic relations.
In their meetings, Kishida agreed to resume defense, trade, and other talks, and Japan is currently negotiating an agreement with Washington and Seoul to share real-time data on North Korean missile launches.
Both Seoul and Tokyo are concerned about the geopolitical uncertainty brought about by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has raised fears of Chinese aggression in the South and East China Seas, as well as against Taiwan. North Korea has also increased its testing of nuclear-capable missiles amidst the global attention on the invasion.
Japan is among several Asian countries that have territorial disputes with China, and this has been a significant factor in Kishida's efforts to distance Japan from its post-World War II principle of self-defense only.
In 2021, Tokyo implemented a new national security strategy that aims to acquire preemptive strike capabilities and cruise missiles to counter threats from North Korea, China, and Russia.
Concerned about the increasing threat from North Korea, which has launched around 100 missiles since the beginning of 2022, Yoon may be using improved relations with Japan as a means of strengthening ties with the United States.
Yoon's administration has expanded combined military exercises with the United States, including three-way drills with Japan, while also seeking greater assurances from Washington that it would use its nuclear weapons quickly and decisively to defend its allies in the event of a North Korean nuclear attack.
According to Jin Chang Soo, an analyst at South Korea's Sejong Institute, there is an increasing recognition in both Tokyo and Seoul that the security issues in the region are becoming more interconnected, leading to a reassessment of the importance of their relationship.
Yoon and Biden recently agreed to a declaration that includes more nuclear information-sharing and regular visits to South Korea by a U.S. nuclear-powered submarine. The Biden administration is reportedly pushing for an extended deterrence dialogue among Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo that would serve as a strong response to North Korea and China and potentially a Chinese-Russian military alliance.
The location of the G-7 summit in Hiroshima, the first city to be targeted with a nuclear weapon, could also serve as a symbolic backdrop for Kishida and Yoon to address the North Korean threat and stress the importance of nuclear non-proliferation.
While the relationship between Japan and South Korea appears to be improving, there are concerns about how long this will last. South Korea has undergone significant changes since the end of the Korean War, transitioning from poverty and dictatorship to becoming a developed economic and military power.
However, political swings between conservative and liberal governments could result in differing policies towards Japan and the US. Additionally, historical issues such as the ongoing court hearings on forced labor continue to simmer just below the surface, potentially posing a threat to the fragile reconciliation.
As Daniel Sneider put it, these issues remain "buried like landmines, not far from the surface and ready to be set off."