Moscow - Russian President Vladimir Putin faced his greatest challenge in over two decades of power, but it ultimately ended peacefully on Saturday. The leader of the rebellious mercenary group, who had ordered his troops to march on Moscow, abruptly reached an agreement with the Kremlin to go into exile, resulting in a retreat by his forces. This dramatic but short-lived revolt significantly impacted the Kremlin and the ongoing 16-month-long war in Ukraine, prompting Russia to withdraw soldiers from the battlefield to protect the capital. The threat posed by the Wagner Group soldiers under the command of Yevgeny Prigozhin was acknowledged, leading to this unexpected turn of events.
According to Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, the deal entailed Prigozhin going into exile in neighboring Belarus, while the charges of armed rebellion against him would be dropped. The government also assured that fighters who participated in the uprising would not face prosecution, while those who did not join would be offered contracts by the Defense Ministry.
Previously, Putin had vowed to punish those behind the armed uprising led by his former protege, whose forces had seized a crucial military facility in southern Russia before advancing toward the capital. In a televised speech, Putin labeled the rebellion as a "betrayal" and "treason." However, the agreement reached with Prigozhin allowed him and his forces to go free, as Putin's primary objective was to prevent bloodshed and internal conflict with unpredictable outcomes.
In anticipation of the arrival of Wagner forces, Moscow took precautionary measures such as setting up checkpoints with armored vehicles and troops at the city's southern edge. Red Square was closed, and motorists were advised to avoid certain roads. Approximately 3,000 Chechen soldiers were urgently deployed from the fighting in Ukraine to Moscow, demonstrating the Kremlin's desperation as the Wagner troops approached within 200 kilometers (120 miles) of the capital, according to Prigozhin.
Nevertheless, after the agreement was reached, Prigozhin announced his decision to retreat in order to prevent the shedding of Russian blood. His troops were instructed to return to their field camps in Ukraine, where they had been fighting alongside regular Russian soldiers.
Prigozhin also demanded the removal of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, whom he had extensively criticized for his handling of the war in Ukraine. On Friday, Prigozhin accused forces under Shoigu's command of attacking Wagner camps and causing "a huge number of casualties" among their ranks.
It remains unclear whether the Kremlin has responded to Prigozhin's demand for Shoigu's ouster. Peskov stated that this issue could not have been discussed during the negotiations, which were conducted by the president of Belarus and fall under the "exclusive prerogative of the commander in chief," referring to Putin.
Early on Saturday, Prigozhin's private army seemed to have control over the military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, a city located 660 miles (over 1,000 kilometers) south of Moscow, which oversees Russian operations in Ukraine, as reported by the British Ministry of Defense. A nighttime video from the city, shared on Russian messaging app channels, showed people cheering as Wagner troops left Rostov-on-Don. Prigozhin was seen riding in one of the vehicles, and people approached him, some shaking his hand as he lowered the window. The regional governor later confirmed that all the troops had left the city.
Wagner troops and equipment were also present in Lipetsk province, approximately 360 kilometers (225 miles) south of Moscow.
In response to the situation, Moscow authorities declared a "counterterrorist regime" in the city and its surrounding region, implementing heightened security measures and restricting movement. Checkpoints were established on the southern outskirts of the city, with sandbags and machine guns set up. Portions of highways were even excavated to impede the march.
To address the severe infighting within Russia, Putin expressed that the country was facing its toughest battle for its future, attributing it to the West's imposition of sanctions on Moscow and its support for Ukraine.
These significant developments occurred exactly 16 months after Russia initiated its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, marking Europe's largest conflict since World War II. The war has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths, millions of displaced individuals, and the destruction of numerous cities.
Ukrainian authorities hoped that the internal discord within Russia would create opportunities for their army to regain territory seized by Russian forces. Ben Barry, a senior fellow for land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, suggested that despite the agreement, Putin's position may have been weakened, offering some comfort to the Ukrainian government and military.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the march on Moscow exposed the Kremlin's weakness and conveyed a message to all Russian bandits, mercenaries, and oligarchs that capturing Russian cities and arsenals was easy. He repeated his call for Western countries to supply Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets and ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles.
Prigozhin had previously pledged that his fighters, numbering around 25,000, would not surrender because they did not want their country to continue existing in a state of corruption, deceit, and bureaucracy. He shared an audio message on his Telegram channel where he asserted that Putin had deeply misunderstood the loyalty of his troops to their homeland, and they were true patriots.
Prigozhin also posted a video of himself at the military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, claiming that his forces had taken control of the airfield and other military facilities in the city without any casualties or even a single gunshot.
However, Russian media reported that several helicopters and a military communications plane had been downed by Wagner troops. The Defense Ministry, when asked about these losses, directed the question to the Defense Ministry, which has not provided any comments on the matter.
This brief rebellion is expected to further hinder Moscow's war effort in Ukraine, as Ukrainian forces have started probing Russian defenses in the initial stages of a counteroffensive. Orysia Lutsevych, the head of the Ukraine Forum at the Chatham House think tank in London, emphasized that the internal conflict could create confusion and potential divisions among Russian military forces operating in Ukraine, offering a unique and unprecedented opportunity for the Ukrainian army.