Thailand's former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has returned to the country after 15 years in exile and has been promptly jailed. However, there is widespread belief that he has reached a deal that will likely result in a relatively short prison term.

Thaksin's return coincided with a critical vote to determine the next Thai leader, with the frontrunner being a member of his Pheu Thai party. He faces sentences of up to eight years in various criminal cases that he contends were politically motivated.

Thaksin, regarded as Thailand's most successful elected leader, has long been a source of concern for conservative royalists who have supported military coups and legal actions to weaken his influence.

Despite this, the telecoms tycoon returned to Bangkok to the cheers of hundreds of loyal supporters who had gathered overnight to welcome him. Accompanied by his two daughters and son, he briefly appeared at the airport terminal to pay homage to a portrait of the king and queen.

Following his arrival, he was taken to the Supreme Court, where he received an eight-year sentence related to the outstanding charges. Subsequently, he was transferred to Bangkok Remand Prison, with the Department of Corrections confirming his safety under staff supervision.

Supporters like 63-year-old Samniang Kongpolparn, who had traveled from the northeastern province of Surin, Thaksin's party stronghold, had been waiting since Monday evening to see him. She praised Thaksin as the best prime minister the country has had and expressed hope for reconciliation with the pro-military government. She and others hoped to avoid a situation with appointed senators in charge.

The political landscape in Thailand has taken a convoluted turn as Thaksin Shinawatra's Pheu Thai party is expected to enter a coalition government today, marking a dramatic shift from the initial hopes of a fresh start led by the progressive Move Forward party, which won the most seats in the May election.

Initially, Move Forward formed a coalition with Pheu Thai, but the current scenario sees nearly all political parties joining forces, except for the reform-oriented groups. Surprisingly, this includes parties led by former coup-makers, a move that contradicts Pheu Thai's earlier commitment to avoid such alliances with its sworn enemies.

Pheu Thai maintains that these developments are unrelated, but skepticism abounds. The party's negotiating power was restricted by the unelected senate, a 250-seat entity introduced into Thailand's political landscape by the military junta following a 2014 coup.

The senators, appointed during the junta's rule, are empowered to vote alongside the 500 elected MPs to choose the new prime minister. Their primary role is to obstruct any party that poses a threat to the established order, characterized by the interconnected realms of monarchy, military, and big business that have influenced Thai decision-making for decades.

As a result, they declined to support the Move Forward-led coalition with Pheu Thai, despite its overwhelming majority in the lower house. Pheu Thai's necessity for senate backing in forming a new coalition led it to incorporate some of its previous adversaries. This intricate political maneuvering underscores the complexity of Thailand's political landscape.

Some members of the Pheu Thai party argue that the party could have secured a better deal by avoiding participation in a government with the most hard-line conservative groups. It's worth noting that any minority administration formed without Pheu Thai and Move Forward would likely collapse swiftly, as senators cannot participate in regular parliamentary votes on critical matters like the budget.

However, the Pheu Thai leadership decided not to wait and even extended an invitation to the ultra-royalist party United Thai Nation to join the coalition. This move is significant because United Thai Nation has been vocally critical of the Shinawatra family and played a role in toppling the previous Pheu Thai government led by Thaksin's sister, Yingluck. The fact that these two factions are now part of the same government highlights the significant shift in Thai politics.

For the ultra-royalists, the perceived threat posed by Move Forward and the younger generation of Thais calling for a discussion on the monarchy's power and wealth outweighed their long-standing feud with the Shinawatra family.

On the other hand, for the Shinawatras and the more conservative, business-oriented elements of Pheu Thai, the top priorities were reentering government and ensuring the agreement to bring Thaksin back. These priorities appeared to take precedence over concerns about the party's reputation.

Nonetheless, even within Pheu Thai, there are individuals who view this pragmatic deal with dismay. They caution that the party risks losing more of its once-devoted grassroots supporters and may forfeit its long-held dominance in Thai electoral politics, a position it held for two decades.