HONG KONG - In a developing maritime development, China's submarine capabilities are set to take a significant leap forward with the impending deployment of their Type 096 ballistic missile submarines.
These advanced submarines are anticipated to challenge U.S. and allied efforts to track them, according to analysts and defense attaches.
It is increasingly evident that China is progressing swiftly towards making the Type 096 operational before the decade's end. Notably, Russian technology has played a role in enhancing the stealthiness of these submarines, making them exceptionally difficult to detect.
The Type 096 submarines are poised to become a substantial concern for international security, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, prompting increased deployments and contingency planning by the U.S. Navy and its allies.
The Chinese Navy has been conducting fully armed nuclear deterrence patrols with their older Type 094 submarines in the South China Sea. However, these earlier vessels are considered noisy, a significant disadvantage for military submarines.
The research presented at the U.S. Naval War College in May and published by the China Maritime Studies Institute in August highlights that the Type 096 submarines will rival state-of-the-art Russian submarines in terms of stealth, sensors, and weaponry. This advancement could have profound implications for the U.S. and its Indo-Pacific partners.
Based on various sources, including Chinese military journals, speeches by senior PLA officers, and patent data, the research suggests that these submarines could be operational by 2030, aligning with the timeline mentioned in the Pentagon's annual reports.
One notable aspect is the potential breakthroughs in pump-jet propulsion and internal noise reduction technologies, possibly influenced by Russian innovations. While it's unclear if China obtained Russia's latest technology, these submarines are expected to be stealthy enough to compare with Moscow's Improved Akula submarines, known for their elusiveness.
The researchers speculate that China might employ a strategy similar to Russia, keeping these advanced submarines in protective coastal "bastions," particularly in the contested South China Sea.
The emergence of these advanced submarines adds complexity to the ongoing international effort to track and monitor Chinese submarines, reminiscent of Cold War-era efforts against Soviet "boomers." Countries like Japan and India are joining the United States, Australia, and Britain in these endeavors, leading to increased anti-submarine warfare drills and the deployment of sub-hunting aircraft.
The United States is also reported to be overhauling its undersea surveillance network to counter China's growing submarine presence.
Furthermore, the AUKUS deal involving Australia, Britain, and the U.S. is influenced by the prospect of quieter Chinese submarines. This partnership will see increased deployments of British and U.S. attack submarines in Western Australia. By the 2030s, Australia aims to launch its own nuclear-powered attack submarines, potentially with British technology.
While China's submarine capabilities may reach technological parity, experts emphasize the need for intensive training and preparation to match AUKUS capabilities in the coming decade.
China's strides in developing advanced Type 096 submarines are raising concerns and prompting strategic adjustments among global powers, setting the stage for an intriguing era of submarine warfare and surveillance.