HONG KONG - China's population witnessed a second consecutive annual decline in 2023, driven by a historic low birth rate and the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. The National Bureau of Statistics reported a reduction of 2.08 million people, or 0.15%, bringing the total population to 1.409 billion.
This decline exceeded the 2022 drop of 850,000, marking the first decrease since 1961 during the Mao Zedong era's Great Famine. The pandemic's impact was notable, with a 6.6% increase in total deaths, reaching 11.1 million. The death rate soared to its highest level since 1974, during the Cultural Revolution.
New births plummeted by 5.7% to 9.02 million, resulting in a record-low birth rate of 6.39 births per 1,000 people, down from 6.77 in 2022. Decades of declining birth rates in China were influenced by the one-child policy (1980-2015) and rapid urbanization, making child-rearing more expensive in cities.
Comparatively, Japan recorded a birth rate of 6.3 per 1,000 people in 2022, and South Korea's rate was 4.9. Experts, such as University of Michigan demographer Zhou Yun, note the difficulty in reversing fertility decline.
Factors further discouraging childbirth in 2023 included record-high youth unemployment, falling wages for white-collar workers, and a crisis in the property sector, where over two-thirds of household wealth is stored.
The data raises concerns about China's economic growth, as a shrinking population means fewer workers and consumers. The rising costs of elderly care and retirement benefits also strain local governments. India surpassed China as the world's most populous nation in 2023, adding to discussions about relocating supply chains away from China amid geopolitical tensions.
Long-term projections by the United Nations estimate a population decline of 109 million in China by 2050, more than triple the 2019 forecast. In 2023, China's population aged 60 and over reached 296.97 million, constituting 21.1% of the total population.
The Chinese Academy of Sciences predicts the pension system running out of funds by 2035, as the retirement-age population is expected to surpass 400 million by then. A farmer from Gansu province expressed concerns over meager savings and inadequate pensions.
High childcare and education costs, job market uncertainties, gender discrimination, and traditional expectations contribute to the reluctance of Chinese couples to have children. President Xi Jinping's call for cultivating a new culture of marriage and childbearing has prompted local governments to introduce measures like tax deductions and longer maternity leave, though some remain unimplemented.
Beijing resident Wang Weidong, 36, working at an internet company, highlighted that incentives alone might not reverse the trend, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive national family subsidy scheme.