In Belgorod, a Russian border city, the wail of air raid sirens has become a chilling norm for residents on edge after a Ukrainian missile attack during the New Year's holiday weekend left dozens dead and scores injured. The escalating conflict has seen a series of daring strikes on critical Russian infrastructure, including a fuel export terminal near St. Petersburg and refineries in Tuapse and Yaroslavl.
Analysts, such as Michael Kofman from the Carnegie Endowment, highlight Ukraine's enhanced capacity to strike back against Russia, targeting crucial installations and military bases. These attacks are dealing a significant blow to President Vladimir Putin's attempts to project normalcy as he ramps up his campaign ahead of the March presidential election.
In response to the attacks, thousands of Russians have supported the unlikely presidential bid of liberal politician Boris Nadezhdin, focusing on ending the war. Wives of soldiers mobilized in 2022 have advocated for their discharge, and even in the face of protest bans, demonstrations have erupted in Bashkortostan province against the imprisonment of a local activist.
The December 30 strike on Belgorod, resulting in 25 deaths and over 100 injuries, marked a bloody escalation. Residents recount horrific scenes of victims with severe injuries, including children, and pools of blood staining sidewalks. The war's impact on daily life is palpable, with reinforced bus stops, online classes, and heightened anxiety among residents.
Despite Putin's attempts to downplay the attacks, the visibility of the war on Russian soil has increased, challenging the Kremlin's control over the political scene. The conflict has even prompted calls for a broader mobilization from Russian hawks like Alexander Dugin.
As Ukraine showcases its long-range strike capability with missile and drone attacks inside Russia, analysts warn of increased pressure on Russia's air defenses. The Institute for the Study of War emphasizes the potential strategic similarity to Russia's past targeting of Ukraine's power grid, aiming to disrupt and delay repairs.
Sergey Vakulenko, an energy analyst at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, highlights the potential challenges for Russian refineries to quickly repair the damage caused by Ukrainian drone attacks. The consequences could be severe, affecting not only pipelines but also essential equipment that is difficult to replace due to sanctions.
As the conflict takes a toll on both infrastructure and public morale, Putin faces a complex challenge in maintaining an air of normalcy amid an increasingly visible and impactful war on Russian soil. The upcoming presidential election adds another layer of complexity to the situation, with growing support for candidates advocating an end to the conflict.