Iran-backed Shi'ite armed groups in Iraq have significantly increased their rocket and missile attacks on Israel recently.
These attacks, although not seen as severe as those from Hamas or Hezbollah, have raised concerns in Washington and among some Iranian allies about possible Israeli retaliation and regional escalation. Two attacks have successfully hit their targets, and many have been intercepted by U.S. and Israeli defenses, U.S. officials and the Israeli military report. New weaponry, such as cruise missiles, which are harder to destroy, has been regularly used since May.

The attacks' intensity and the types of weapons have escalated, complicating Israel's defense efforts and increasing costs, according to Mike Knights from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Reuters interviewed over a dozen sources, including those from Iraqi armed groups, Iranian allies, and U.S. and regional officials, most speaking anonymously.

These sources indicated that the attacks by groups like Kataib Hezbollah and Nujaba are causing rising concern in Washington and unease among some in Iran and Hezbollah, which seeks to avoid broader conflict.

A senior figure within the Axis of Resistance, Iran's network of regional allies, expressed worry that these attacks could drag the Axis into a conflict it doesn't want.

Historically, Iran and Hezbollah have struggled to control Iraqi factions. Hussein al-Mousawi, spokesperson for Nujaba, stated that the attacks are a natural evolution and aim to increase the war's cost for Israel.

The Iraqi government does not officially support these strikes but has been unable to stop them, showing Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani's limited power in a coalition government with Iran-backed groups.

Critics argue that these strikes undermine efforts to portray Iraq as stable and open for business. Iraq, which does not recognize Israel, has severe penalties for normalizing ties with Israel. Israel views Iraq as an Iranian proxy and a key route for weapons to groups like Hezbollah.

Both the Israeli and Iraqi governments did not comment, and the U.S. State Department declined to comment.
The Iraqi groups, having evolved from the post-2003 fight against U.S. troops, have expanded their regional reach, similar to other Iranian allies like the Houthis in Yemen. They have participated in the Syrian civil war and launched attacks on Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The recent attacks on Israel are launched from areas south of Baghdad and near the Iraqi-Syrian border.

Iran is concerned about the potential for these groups to miscalculate, as shown in January when they killed three U.S. troops in Jordan, leading to U.S. airstrikes. The commander of Iran's Quds Force had to intervene to reduce tensions, resulting in a temporary halt to attacks on U.S. forces.

However, these groups then shifted focus to Israel, as part of a strategy to pressure Israel over the Gaza war, according to a senior Iranian official.

A U.S. defense official warned that these attacks jeopardize regional stability and could prompt military action by the U.S. and Israel. Historically, Iraq posed a threat to Israel during the 1991 Gulf War when Saddam Hussein fired Scud missiles at Tel Aviv and Haifa. Iraqi Shi'ite armed factions have pledged solidarity with Palestinians, initially targeting U.S. forces but then shifting to Israel.

Since November, there have been numerous claimed attacks on Israel, including a significant increase in March and May, although not all claims are verified. These attacks often feature videos on social media, though their authenticity is uncertain.

Israel, which rarely comments on such operations, has likely struck pro-Iran groups in Iraq before. Israeli authorities have confirmed at least two impacts on Eilat and multiple interceptions of projectiles from Iraq.

Amos Yadlin, a former Israeli military intelligence head, rates the threat from Iraqi attacks as lower than those from Hezbollah or the Houthis.

A U.S. defense official noted that U.S. forces in the Middle East have intercepted projectiles from Iraq, reflecting a commitment to Israel's defense and regional security. The frequency of these actions has increased due to the rising number of threats.