Gaza remains at significant risk of famine due to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, with restricted access to aid exacerbating the situation. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) reported on Tuesday that more than 495,000 people in Gaza face "catastrophic" food insecurity, down from a previous forecast of 1.1 million three months ago, but still affecting over one fifth of the population. Under this extreme level of food insecurity, households experience severe food shortages leading to acute malnutrition in children, imminent starvation risk, and deaths.

The IPC's latest assessment highlighted that more than half of Gazan households had to sell clothes to buy food, and one-third resorted to gathering and selling rubbish. Over 20% reported going entire days without eating. Approximately 96% of the population faced high levels of acute food insecurity until September. Food and nutrition deliveries in March and April helped reduce hunger severity in northern Gaza, where famine had been previously forecasted. However, Israel's offensive near Rafah in early May and other hostilities have worsened conditions, causing renewed deterioration in recent weeks.

"The humanitarian space in Gaza continues to shrink, making it increasingly difficult to deliver assistance safely," the update said. The Famine Review Committee, which assesses IPC findings, reported "extreme human suffering" in Gaza, with the risk of famine undiminished. It noted that "eight months of extreme pressure on the population" have heightened their vulnerability to famine.

The Rafah offensive led to the closure of the crossing on Gaza's border with Egypt, a key route for food and supply deliveries and civilian evacuations. Along with disruptions at the Israeli Kerem Shalom crossing, this reduced humanitarian access for two million people in southern Gaza from May 1 to September 30. Displacement to areas with less water and fewer health services increases disease outbreak risks, which could have catastrophic impacts on nutrition and health.

Southern Gaza is nearing a tipping point that could rapidly lead to famine, according to the Famine Review Committee. Israel's military campaign, launched after Hamas militants raided southern Israel on October 7, killing around 1,200 people and taking over 250 hostages, has resulted in nearly 37,600 Palestinian deaths and severe displacement within Gaza. The IPC, involving U.N. agencies, national governments, and aid groups, sets global standards for measuring food crises. Its most severe warning, Phase 5, indicates catastrophe and famine. Famine can be declared if 20% of a population experiences extreme food shortages, 30% of children are acutely malnourished, and two out of every 10,000 people die daily from starvation, malnutrition, or disease.