Paris: European countries are currently in discussions about the possibility of deploying troops to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire or peace agreement, following U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's declaration that the U.S. will not commit ground forces to ensure security, according to diplomats and officials.

The conversations, led by French President Emmanuel Macron, are still in the early stages but have already exposed divisions over the objectives and scope of such a mission, as well as the appropriateness of raising the issue at this point in time.

As Ukraine faces increasing pressure in the ongoing conflict, European leaders are keen to avoid sending the wrong message to Russian President Vladimir Putin—that the West is signaling a shift towards negotiations, especially in a way that could allow Russia to retain its battlefield gains. European officials stress their focus remains on increasing military and economic support for Ukraine, with no signs that Putin is prepared to negotiate.

However, behind closed doors, some European officials are exploring ways to offer security guarantees to Ukraine, which could include deploying tens of thousands of troops to the region. Such a deployment would heighten the risk of direct conflict with Russia, and European military forces are already stretched thin, having depleted their stockpiles by supplying Ukraine and increasingly relying on U.S. support for large-scale missions.

Trump, during talks with Macron and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Paris on December 7, made it clear that the U.S. would not be involved in enforcing a ceasefire. He insisted that Europeans would have to take on this responsibility themselves.

This could potentially lead to European troops being sent to Ukraine, either in the form of security guarantees through NATO membership, as Kyiv hopes, or through bilateral agreements.

"Even if Ukraine were to secure a NATO security guarantee, the on-the-ground commitment would come from European forces," said a senior European official. "Our military leaders are already preparing plans for European governments to consider in the future."

Major European countries like France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and the UK are likely to form the backbone of such a force, according to officials.

Macron has faced criticism for pushing this issue, given the political sensitivity of sending troops to Ukraine. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, after meeting with Macron, confirmed that Poland has no plans to join any such mission. German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius also noted that while Germany could potentially play a role in securing a ceasefire, it was too soon to determine the specifics of any potential deployment.

Ukrainian officials suggested that the matter could be brought up again during a meeting in Brussels, where NATO’s chief Mark Rutte is expected to host Zelenskiy and other European leaders. However, Rutte urged caution, advising NATO and Ukrainian leaders to be discreet about discussing future scenarios. "If we make these discussions public now, why would Putin come to the negotiating table when he's already getting what he wants?" Rutte said.

The debate so far has raised questions about whether a future European mission would serve as a traditional peacekeeping force, such as monitoring a ceasefire line, or take on a more robust deterrent role against further Russian aggression. Italian officials have expressed interest in peacekeeping, while French and Ukrainian officials have emphasized the need for deterrence.

If the mission were to adopt a deterrence role, it could involve a coalition of five to eight countries, with estimates of the force size varying depending on its specific mandate. Some analysts suggest a force of around 40,000 troops could be feasible. However, if the mission involves rotation schemes, with units periodically deploying and replenishing, the total number of troops involved at any given time could rise to as many as 100,000, according to former military planner Franz-Stefan Gady of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

This scale of deployment could strain European land forces, which are already stretched thin due to commitments elsewhere, such as in the Balkans. European countries previously deployed around 60,000 troops to Bosnia and 50,000 to Kosovo in the 1990s, though these missions are now much smaller in scope.

Another unresolved issue is the composition of the international force, as its makeup must be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine. There are also disagreements about the mandate. Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto has suggested that any force should be under the auspices of the United Nations. However, some officials argue that giving Russia, a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, such influence would be problematic.

The role of the U.S. in the mission remains uncertain, though analysts suggest that Washington may need to contribute, at least in terms of intelligence and operational support. Additionally, there are still many unanswered questions about the rules of engagement for such a force.

"What would happen if a European soldier were shot?" asked a French military official, underscoring the complexity of the mission.