Poles will head to the polls on Sunday for a pivotal presidential election that could determine whether the country remains firmly on Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-European course or veers toward a nationalist revival inspired by former U.S. President Donald Trump.
Trump’s resurgence on the international stage has galvanized eurosceptic forces across the continent, and Sunday’s election represents the clearest challenge yet to Tusk’s pro-EU agenda since he reclaimed power in 2023, ousting the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party.
The contest features Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, representing Tusk’s centrist Civic Coalition (KO), squaring off against conservative historian Karol Nawrocki, the PiS-backed candidate. Trzaskowski is widely viewed as the frontrunner, with the likelihood of a head-to-head run-off against Nawrocki on June 1 should no candidate surpass the 50% threshold in Sunday’s first round. Due to electoral rules, media are barred from publishing poll data from Saturday morning until the close of voting on Sunday evening.
Other candidates in the race include far-right Confederation party leader Slawomir Mentzen, centre-right Parliament Speaker Szymon Holownia of Poland 2050, and Magdalena Biejat from the Left.
Adding regional weight to Sunday’s developments, Romanians will simultaneously cast ballots in a run-off presidential vote between nationalist George Simion—who campaigns under the slogan “Make Romania Great Again”—and centrist Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan. Twin wins for eurosceptics in both countries would send tremors through the European Union, already grappling with the geopolitical instability wrought by Russia’s war in Ukraine and the specter of Trump-era trade disputes.
Polling stations in Poland open at 7 a.m. (0500 GMT) and close at 9 p.m., with approximately 29 million voters eligible to cast their ballots.
Presidency as a Checkpoint of Power
Though largely ceremonial, the Polish presidency holds critical veto powers, which outgoing President Andrzej Duda—a staunch PiS ally—has used to block reforms proposed by Tusk, including efforts to reverse controversial judicial overhauls enacted by PiS.
Trzaskowski has vowed to restore democratic checks and reinforce Poland’s influence within the EU. “I’ll strengthen ties with our NATO and EU allies,” he said during a televised interview Friday. “And I’ll ask Parliament to resend me the bills Duda vetoed—so I can sign them. It’s time to end the legal chaos PiS left behind.”
A Clash of Visions
Nawrocki, meanwhile, positions himself as a bulwark against what he calls the liberal overreach of Trzaskowski and Tusk. He has rallied support by invoking religious and cultural symbolism, criticizing Trzaskowski for supporting LGBTQ+ rights and removing Christian crosses from public spaces in Warsaw. “The cross he took down isn’t just a symbol—it’s a thousand years of Polish heritage, our spiritual backbone,” Nawrocki told a rally in Lublin.
His campaign has been shadowed by allegations—strongly denied—that he exploited an elderly man in a real estate deal. Despite the controversy, Nawrocki received a symbolic boost from Trump, who hosted him at the White House.
While diverging from some European nationalists by endorsing military aid to Ukraine, Nawrocki has also leaned into nationalist rhetoric, emphasizing that Polish citizens should be prioritized in accessing public services. He has also criticized Ukraine’s stance on historical issues, particularly the exhumation of Polish war victims.
As the vote nears, Poland finds itself at a crossroads—between deeper integration with the European project and a return to conservative nationalism emboldened by shifting global currents.