In the coming week, Wall Street will closely monitor Nvidia’s quarterly earnings report, which arrives at a time when the stock market is being rocked by growing concerns over the rising U.S. national debt and escalating Treasury yields. The AI chip titan’s performance is expected to be a critical inflection point for investor sentiment, particularly as fears about fiscal sustainability and trade tensions continue to rattle financial markets.

U.S. stocks stumbled this past week after an extended rally, as attention shifted to legislation that could further balloon the already staggering $36 trillion U.S. debt load. These concerns pushed long-term Treasury yields higher, with the 30-year note crossing the 5% threshold—its highest point since late 2023. This surge in yields has raised alarm bells, since it makes borrowing costlier for both businesses and consumers, potentially dampening economic growth.

Adding to market unease, former President Donald Trump reignited trade war fears on Friday by threatening new tariffs on European goods and targeting Apple with a proposed 25% tariff on iPhones not manufactured in the U.S. His remarks followed his earlier imposition of broad tariffs in April, which had already sent global markets into a frenzy. Though markets partially rebounded after Trump hinted at softening trade positions, including a possible U.S.-China truce, volatility remains high.

Investors are now pivoting their focus to Nvidia’s earnings release on Wednesday. The chipmaker, a cornerstone of the AI boom, is seen as a bellwether for tech and market momentum. “The entire market is going to be laser-focused on Nvidia,” said Chuck Carlson, CEO of Horizon Investment Services. “It sits at the heart of the AI-driven rally we’ve seen.” Nvidia is the last of the so-called "Magnificent Seven" mega-cap tech stocks to report earnings, and its results could significantly sway market direction.

Despite its monumental surge of over 1,000% from late 2022 to the end of 2024, Nvidia's stock has dipped about 2% in 2025. Analysts surveyed by LSEG expect first-quarter profits to rise roughly 45% on revenue of $43.2 billion. Given strong AI-related spending signals from other major tech firms this earnings season, Nvidia’s update could either revive excitement around the AI theme or further erode confidence. "Nvidia has the power to reignite enthusiasm for AI in the market," noted Art Hogan of B. Riley Wealth.

Further complicating Nvidia’s outlook are export restrictions imposed by the U.S. government, which could result in $5.5 billion in losses due to limitations on its H20 AI chips destined for China. As trade policy remains volatile, with Trump’s agenda dominating headlines, market participants are also grappling with broader economic risks. A recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody’s only amplified concerns. Meanwhile, the House passed a GOP-backed tax-and-spending bill aligned with Trump’s economic goals, projected to add nearly $4 trillion to the national debt over the next decade. Rising bond yields globally have fueled a selloff in fixed income markets, intensifying the competitive pressure on stocks. “If interest rates keep climbing,” Carlson warned, “equities will face increasing headwinds from both a cost and competition perspective.”