Beijing: In a high-stakes diplomatic tour reflecting both economic optimism and geopolitical caution, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has embarked on a six-day official visit to China. The visit is poised to shape the next chapter in Australia–China relations, balancing deepening trade flows with escalating regional and security concerns.
Albanese’s arrival in Shanghai marks a significant moment in bilateral relations, as China remains Australia’s largest trading partner with over A$312 billion in two-way trade in 2024. The prime minister’s entourage includes top executives from mining and resource giants such as BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue, signaling Australia’s desire to expand trade opportunities, particularly in critical minerals, green energy, and digital innovation.
Yet, this economic outreach unfolds in the shadow of lingering mistrust. The relationship between Canberra and Beijing deteriorated in recent years over issues like Australia’s stance on COVID-19 origins, the banning of Huawei from 5G networks, and security arrangements like the AUKUS pact. Albanese's trip is viewed as an attempt to recalibrate ties without compromising on national interests.
While trade remains front and center, national security concerns are far from dormant. Australia has voiced alarm over Chinese military activities in the Indo-Pacific, including unannounced naval operations in the Tasman Sea and airspace incursions. Moreover, Chinese investment in sensitive Australian sectors, such as critical infrastructure and minerals, continues to face intense scrutiny from the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB).
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has reiterated that foreign investment reviews will remain stringent, despite China's hopes for eased restrictions. Canberra is also expected to firmly reiterate its position that any military involvement in a potential U.S.–China conflict over Taiwan would be assessed only in real time, not precommitted an approach designed to assert strategic autonomy.
During his tour, Albanese is scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Qiang, and senior party officials. Discussions will cover a possible revision of the 2015 China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA) to accommodate new economic sectors like AI, climate technologies, and advanced manufacturing.
China has indicated its readiness to revisit trade frameworks, suggesting a willingness to “reset” ties, though analysts warn that Beijing may expect political concessions in return something Australia is unlikely to provide on issues like national security or foreign interference laws.
In statements prior to his departure, Albanese emphasized his intent to engage in "honest and respectful dialogue." While expressing hope for trade expansion, he made clear that Australia would not abandon its principles or partnerships, especially those with the U.S., Japan, and India under the Quad alliance.
Back home, public opinion is cautiously optimistic. Many Australians support economic engagement with China but remain wary of overdependence. Defense analysts are closely watching the trip for signs of whether Australia will lean further into a "dual-track strategy"—growing economic ties while diversifying defense and supply chains away from Beijing.
Prime Minister Albanese’s visit to China is as much about repairing and realigning a complex relationship as it is about seeking new economic openings. It reflects a broader shift in how mid-sized powers like Australia are navigating a world shaped by great power competition, regional instability, and strategic uncertainty.
Whether this diplomatic gamble will yield lasting results remains to be seen but for now, all eyes are on Beijing.