The third wave of coronavirus could hit the peak in India by February, owing to the new variant Omicron. Cases are likely to reach 1-1.5 lakh a day in the country. According to Manindra Agarwal, an IIT scientist involved in the mathematical forecast of the trajectory of COVID-19, it is expected to be milder than the second wave. He said that the new Omicron variant has been factored in while estimating the figures.
“It looks like although the new variant has shown high transmissibility, its severity is not like the one seen in the Delta variant,” Agarwal said. The scientist, however, said a close watch is being kept on cases in South Africa where the most cases of this variant have been recorded. He added that as of now South Africa has not seen a rise in hospitalisation. An updated set of data on the virus and hospitalisations would reveal a more concrete picture. He said as observed during the spread of delta, a mild lockdown, ie, night curfew, restrictions on crowding etc, can bring down the numbers substantially. That will significantly reduce the peak value.
The Sutra-model formulated by the Department of Science and Technology (DST) had earlier cautioned that a third wave would hit the country by October if a more virulent and transmissible variant emerged. In the absence of a new variant till the end of November, the department has revised their forecast to November.
On November 26th, the World Health Organisation named the new COVID-19 virus variant, first detected in South Africa and in some other countries, as ‘Omicron’. The variant was further classified as a ‘Variant of Concern’. Experts suggested that genetic modification in the virus may cause it to gain some specific characteristics.
The new variant has caused a rise in transmissibility of infection however its deadliness and ability to evade immunity are still to be clarified. The next two weeks might bring to light more information.
The number of cases identified with Omicron variant in India so far is 21. This includes 17 cases reported on Sunday alone, with nine persons from Jaipur, Rajasthan’s capital; seven in Pune, Maharashtra and a fully vaccinated man who arrived in Delhi from Tanzania.