Geneva: The global food crisis, intensified by the Russia-Ukraine war has brought even richer countries to the brink of acute food shortage. 

Adverse climate change and lack of agricultural production commensurate with population growth had already strained global food production. The Russia-Ukraine war has exacerbated the problem given the fact that Ukraine has been the major supplier of wheat and oil. 

The World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that the number of "severely food insecure people" multiplied from 135 million before the pandemic, to 276 million at the start of 2022 – with the war in Ukraine expected to drive this up to 323 million by the end of the year.

David Beasley, the head of WFP, has called Russia's failure to open the ports in Ukraine to grain and agricultural exports "a declaration of war on global food security."

Russia and Ukraine combined supply 12 per cent of all traded commodities in the world – including more than one-quarter of globally traded wheat and barley, and three-quarters of the sunflower oil.

Since the start of the war, Ukraine's exports of grain and oilseeds have mostly stopped and that of Russia remains under sanctions.

According to simulations of the expected shortfall in food exports from Ukraine and Russia – and assuming food exports aren't increased elsewhere as a result – the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations says: "The number of undernourished people will increase by close to 19 million in 2023."

European Council president Charles Michel told the UN Security Council in June that the Kremlin was using food supply as a "stealth missile" against developing countries.

"A few weeks ago in Odesa, millions of tonnes of grain and wheat stuck in containers and ships because of Russian warships in the Black Sea and because of Russia's attack on transport infrastructure. And it is Russian tanks, Russian bombs and mines that are preventing Ukraine from planting and harvesting." he said.

Supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the effects of climate change – like the heat waves in India – were already impacting the world's food supply before the war began.

"Ukraine was really just the domino that set off the chain reaction," Mr Cribb says. "It blew food prices through the roof.

There is also a water crisis building in the Middle East and North Africa which is contributing to the issue.

"Fresh water supplies three-quarters of the world's food – so if you run out of water, you stop growing food," Mr Cribb explains.

And the world's population is projected to reach 8.5 billion in 2030 – with more than half of this growth expected to occur in Africa.

"So the population is getting bigger, while the ability to grow food agriculturally is getting smaller," Mr Cribb says.

"That is the fundamental ingredient in this current crisis."