Scientists in the United States have confirmed the onset of El Nino, a natural weather phenomenon occurring in the Pacific Ocean. This occurrence is expected to contribute additional heat to a planet already affected by climate change. Experts warn that the presence of El Niño is likely to make 2024 the hottest year on record globally.
Concerns also arose that it may push the world beyond the critical 1.5°C warming threshold.
El Nino's influence will extend to global weather patterns, potentially resulting in drought conditions in Australia, increased rainfall in the southern United States, and a weakening of India's monsoon season. The event is anticipated to persist until the following spring, with its impacts diminishing thereafter.
After months of growing confidence among researchers, it appears that an El Niño event is indeed developing in the Pacific Ocean. According to Adam Scaife, head of long-range predictions at the UK Met Office, the intensity of the event is expected to peak at the end of this year.
This has raised the possibility of a new global temperature record in 2024. The size of the El Niño will play a significant role, and a strong event by the year's end increases the likelihood of breaking temperature records in the following year.
El Nino, the powerful climate phenomenon, has been confirmed to have begun in the Pacific Ocean. This hot phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurs every few years and brings warm surface waters to the South American coast, releasing significant heat into the atmosphere.
It is predicted that the current El Nino event will intensify, potentially leading to 2024 becoming the hottest year on record. The impacts of El Niño include influencing global weather patterns, such as drought in Australia, increased rainfall in the southern US, and weakened monsoons in India.
Various criteria are used to identify the onset of El Nino, with the US National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirming its presence based on specific temperature and atmospheric response conditions.
The ongoing El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean is expected to intensify and has a 25% chance of becoming a "super El Nino." It will have global impacts, including drier conditions in Australia and parts of Asia, a weakened monsoon in India, increased precipitation in the southern US, and worsened drought in Africa.
The potential human and economic costs are significant, as seen in the 1997-98 El Nino. Moreover, there is a high likelihood that 2024 will become the hottest year on record due to the influence of El Nino.
The current global temperatures are already 1.1C above the average from 1850-1900, and an El Nino event could add up to 0.2C more, bringing the world close to breaking the 1.5C limit set by the Paris climate agreement.
Researchers suggest that temporarily surpassing this limit is likely in the next few years. This prospect alarms many, as it signifies a shift towards higher temperatures becoming more frequent in the future. El Nino acts as an accelerant in this process, further exacerbating the warming trend.