ERISLAV, Ukraine—Evidence obtained from drone photos indicates that Russia had the means, motive, and opportunity to cause the Ukrainian dam's collapse. The photos show a car with explosives on the Kakhovka Dam, and sources suggest that Russian troops were strategically placed inside. The Russian Defense Ministry has not responded to these allegations.
The destruction of the dam resulted in devastating floods, jeopardized agricultural production in a key food-producing region, posed a threat to drinking water supplies, and triggered an environmental catastrophe. Additionally, Ukrainian commanders assert that the dam's collapse disrupted their plans to counter Russian forces.
Both Russia and Ukraine have traded accusations regarding the destruction of the dam, but the explanations provided by Russia, such as missile strikes or explosives, do not fully explain the intensity of the blast, which even registered on seismic monitors in the area.
The massive flooding that ensued after the explosion has presented Russia with certain advantages, although the occupied areas also suffered significant consequences, potentially surpassing initial expectations.
The Dnieper River serves as the dividing line between Russian and Ukrainian forces in the region surrounding the dam, with Russian forces holding control over the dam itself.
The rising floodwaters in the area affected both Ukrainian and Russian positions, destroying equipment and disrupting supply chains. Two Ukrainian commanders revealed that the flooding forced them to start their planning from scratch and face the challenge of traversing a longer distance in muddy conditions. They suggested that the flooding and Russian actions, such as mining the area, were aimed at impeding Ukrainian forces' movements and complicating their operations.
Ukraine's recent counteroffensive to reclaim territory from Russian forces has seen limited gains. Russian President Vladimir Putin indirectly acknowledged the advantage gained by his forces due to the dam's destruction, which disrupted Ukraine's counteroffensive. Putin expressed that it would have been more favorable for Russia if Ukraine had initiated an attack in that area, confidently stating that it would have ended badly for Ukraine.
The Kakhovka Dam, along with other Soviet-era dams on the Dnieper River, was built to withstand significant force. It is unlikely that Ukraine possesses missiles with the power to destroy such dams, and it would be implausible for Ukrainian commandos to sneak in and plant explosives while the dam was under Russian control. Russian soldiers were stationed inside the dam's machine room just before its collapse, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had previously stated that the dam was mined.
According to the Institute for the Study of War and observations from Ukrainian military drone footage, there is evidence suggesting that the Russians deliberately damaged the dam. Photos from the drone footage show a car parked on the dam, with barrels and a possible land mine attached. It is believed that the car bomb was intended to prevent any Ukrainian advance and enhance the planned explosion from the machine room, causing the top of the dam to collapse.
The explosion, detected by seismic monitors, was significant and resulted in the flooding of the surrounding area. Despite initial suggestions of disrepair as a possible cause, the section of the dam near the Russian-controlled area, where explosives had been previously detonated, remained intact.
Ukraine's intelligence service released an intercepted conversation in which a Russian soldier mentioned the presence of sabotage groups and acknowledged that the plan regarding the dam did not go as intended.