KYIV, Ukraine — After multiple delays, Ukrainian commanders seized the opportunity for an ambush. Under the cover of darkness, Kyiv's 129th brigade quietly advanced towards the unsuspecting Russian soldiers. By the time the Russian troops along the front line realized they were under attack, it was too late.
The recapture of the village of Neskuchne in eastern Donetsk on June 10 exemplifies the initial tactic of a significant counteroffensive initiated this month. Utilizing small platoons, the Ukrainian forces rely on surprise to achieve incremental gains in territory and battlefield intelligence. Ukrainian forces, led by deputy commander Serhii Zherebylo, adopted a strategic approach of stealth and surprise in retaking the village of Neskuchne.
Ukraine is actively working along its extensive 1,500-kilometer front line to weaken the enemy and reconfigure the battle lines, aiming for favorable conditions to launch a decisive eastward offensive. One potential tactic is to divide Russia's forces, isolating the illegally annexed Crimean Peninsula from the rest of their controlled territory. The recent armed rebellion within Russia provided a morale boost to Ukrainian troops and posed a significant challenge to President Putin's power. However, the impact of the uprising by the Wagner Group mercenaries, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, on the overall course of the war remains uncertain.
While the internal conflict within Russia has created distractions for its military and political leaders, experts suggest that its influence on the battlefield has been limited thus far. Ukraine has intensified operations near the city of Bakhmut, previously seized by Wagner forces and subsequently handed over to Russian soldiers, resulting in territorial losses for the latter on their southern flank.
Nevertheless, the strength of the Russian military along the front line has remained unchanged despite the rebellion. Ukraine's decisive push lacks a specific location, but its success hinges on yet-to-be-deployed Western-equipped brigades. However, Russia's fortified positions and air superiority currently impede Ukraine's progress. Experts are uncertain about which side has the advantage. Russia benefits from entrenched manpower and ammunition, while Ukraine possesses modern weaponry and battlefield adaptability.
Ukrainian commanders recognize the time pressure, as the approaching autumn muddy season adds urgency to their operations. While Ukrainian forces are making gradual gains, they have not yet seized the operational initiative, meaning they are not dictating the pace and terms of engagement. Some observers express disappointment in the counteroffensive's progress. Analyst Dylan Lee Lehrke emphasizes that expecting a swift liberation similar to the previous blitzkrieg in the Kharkiv region is unrealistic due to Russia's extensive fortifications.
Russian authorities claim significant losses for Ukraine, including 259 tanks and 790 armored vehicles, but these figures remain unverified by independent sources. Intense battles are underway in multiple combat zones, with notable progress being made. The collapse of a dam in the Kherson region has altered the landscape along the Dnieper River, allowing Ukrainians more freedom to maneuver. Russian military bloggers claim that Ukrainian fighters have made advancements in the area, although official confirmation is pending.
In the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukrainian troops, backed by tanks, artillery, and drones, are gradually gaining ground against Russian positions. Recapturing access to the Sea of Azov from this direction would have a significant impact, potentially cutting off Moscow's land bridge to Crimea. However, the feasibility of this objective at the current stage remains uncertain.
Despite these developments, Ukrainian forces still have a considerable distance to cover before achieving their goals. Inside an underground command center, a Ukrainian Special Forces commander known as "Hunter" meticulously examines an aerial view of the battlefield, reflecting the intense determination and focus of the Ukrainian troops.
Amidst a continuous barrage of enemy fire, Hunter's troops bravely storm an enemy position. The Russians retaliate by launching rockets into the air, while Hunter's fighters take cover, awaiting further instructions. In a strategic move, Hunter commands the drone operator to engage. On the screen, a massive cloud of black smoke emerges, indicating a successful hit.
However, analysts warn that the battle ahead will only grow more challenging. Ukrainian troops still have several kilometers to go before reaching Russia's main defensive lines. As they push further into occupied territory, they will encounter formidable Russian defenses, including minefields, anti-tank ditches, and pyramid-shaped obstacles known as "dragon's teeth," organized in a diagonal pattern up to 10 kilometers deep in certain areas.
Moreover, with each advance, the Ukrainian forces become increasingly susceptible to Russian air attacks. Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Ukraine has regained approximately 130 square kilometers of land in the south during the counteroffensive, but progress is slower than anticipated.
A U.S. official described the counteroffensive as a challenging and demanding "long slog" for Ukrainian forces. The absence of a decisive "D-Day moment" suggests that the pace will be tough for the Ukrainians. Unlike previous battles, Ukrainian forces are facing significant resistance from Russian forces, particularly in the northeast near the Kreminna forest. Russian offensive operations aim to secure a buffer zone and potentially force more Ukrainian deployments.
The dense forest terrain poses challenges for both sides, with Russian sabotage groups infiltrating Ukrainian defenses. Understanding the adversary's thinking and response is crucial, according to Col. Volodymyr Silenko of the 30th Mechanized Brigade, who prioritizes outsmarting the Russians over sheer force. Deception played a crucial role in Ukraine's past successful counteroffensive, the "Kherson ruse," where they misled the Russians about their main target. However, whether Ukraine can replicate this deception strategy in the current situation remains uncertain.