Quito - In a surprising turn of events, the heir to a fortune amassed from Ecuador's primary export, bananas, has made an unexpected advancement to the nation's presidential runoff. He will face off against an ally of a previously convicted former president, who continues to wield influence in the South American country.
Daniel Noboa, hailing from a wealthy background in the banana industry, and leftist candidate Luisa González, both young and relatively inexperienced in politics, emerged as the top two contenders in the recent special presidential election. They now face the challenge of convincing Ecuadorian voters that they possess the capability to stem the tide of unprecedented violence that has plagued the country over the past three years.
Among the eight candidates who vied in Sunday's election, none managed to garner sufficient support for an outright victory. The election occurred under the watchful gaze of tens of thousands of police officers and soldiers deployed throughout the country, partially in response to the assassination of one of the presidential candidates earlier in the month.
As of Monday, approximately 94% of the votes had been counted, with the results from the National Electoral Council indicating González in the lead with around 33% of support. While González had been the front-runner heading into the contest, the surprise of the election day came from Noboa, who secured roughly 24% of the votes, despite having never risen above fifth place in pre-election polls.
To secure an outright win, a candidate needed either 50% of the vote or a minimum of 40% with a 10-point lead over their closest rival.
Noboa's journey into politics commenced in 2021, when he secured a seat in the National Assembly and chaired its Economic Development Commission. Aged 35, Noboa launched an event organizing company at 18 and subsequently joined his father's Noboa Corporation, holding managerial positions in shipping, logistics, and commerce.
Having been educated in the United States, Noboa made a dramatic entrance by helicopter to cast his vote on Election Day. He even donned a bulletproof vest during campaigning and debates. His father, Álvaro Noboa, stands as Ecuador's wealthiest individual, primarily due to his involvement in banana cultivation and trade, alongside other ventures. The elder Noboa ran unsuccessfully for president five times.
Encircled by supporters, the younger Noboa informed reporters after the polls closed on Sunday that he had not yet achieved his goal since the presidency was still up for grabs. He stated, "Tomorrow, we will have to start working again campaigning. There's a runoff."
Juan Francisco Camino, a political science professor at Ecuador's University of the Hemispheres, suggested that one significant factor contributing to Noboa's unexpected success could be his discreet involvement in social assistance initiatives conducted through a nonprofit chaired by his mother, Anabella Azin.
Camino explained that Noboa's funding of food and medical aid in impoverished and rural communities "in a context where the state is absent in those areas" had a notable impact. Additionally, Camino noted that Noboa's image as a "young, athletic, composed, and particularly, extensively educated abroad" individual garnered support from some voters.
The election transpired following the dissolution of the National Assembly by President Guillermo Lasso, a former conservative banker, in May. This action was taken to avoid impeachment over allegations of his failure to intervene in a flawed contract between a state-owned oil transport company and a private tanker company. Lasso chose not to run in the special election.
On the early hours of Monday, a magnitude 5.5 earthquake rattled Guayaquil, a port city at the center of the country's violence. Although buildings shook and people fled into the streets, no injuries or damage were reported.
Christian Zurita, a candidate, trailed behind Noboa and González with 16% support. While not listed on the ballot, Zurita replaced Fernando Villavicencio, who was killed as he left a campaign rally earlier in the month. This event starkly revealed people's fears over increasing violent crime in a nation that had been considered peaceful until just three years ago.
González, a 45-year-old lawyer and former legislator, highlighted her affiliation with the party of former President Rafael Correa throughout her campaign. Despite Correa's conviction for corruption in 2020 and an eight-year prison sentence, he remains influential and resides in Belgium.
The victor of the October 15 runoff will govern for the remaining term of Lasso, which amounts to less than two years.
Beyond the demand for enhanced safety, the new president must address an economy struggling to rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic. The Central Bank of the country reduced its growth projection for 2023 from 3.1% to 2.6%, with analysts predicting even lower annual economic performance.
Karina Navarro, a 44-year-old accountant, expressed hope for a stronger economy, emphasizing the potential domino effect of growth leading to job creation and reduced crime rates. Navarro's personal safety concerns had led her to stay indoors more often, even in the secure confines of gated communities.
In addition to selecting a new National Assembly, voters were tasked with deciding on two ballot measures—one regarding halting oil extraction in a portion of the Amazon jungle, and the other concerning authorization for mineral exploitation such as gold, silver, and copper in the Andean Choco forests around Quito.
Gabriela Quimiz, an auto part shop saleswoman, cited González's affiliation with Correa and the latter's past social initiatives as reasons for her vote. Quimiz expressed her desire for national improvement and an end to rising crime rates.
As the election unfolded, Quimiz encapsulated the sentiment of many Ecuadorians, yearning for a positive change to alleviate the crisis. She stated, "We all want the country to improve and for this crime to end."