Beijing - "The Disappearance of China's Defense Minister Raises Concerns about President Xi Jinping's Rule Amidst a Security Clampdown Over Global Engagement"

Growing uncertainty surrounding a series of upheavals in China's top leadership ranks is casting doubt on President Xi Jinping's rule as his focus on internal security measures takes precedence over international engagement. This heightened unpredictability is causing diplomats and analysts to express worries about the confidence that other nations have in the leadership of the world's second-largest economy.

Defense Minister Li Shangfu, who has been absent from official meetings, including those with foreign counterparts, since late August, is currently under investigation in a corruption probe related to military procurement, as reported by Reuters.

In a parallel development, newly appointed Foreign Minister Qin Gang also disappeared under unclear circumstances in July, coinciding with a sudden shake-up within the military's elite Rocket Force, responsible for overseeing China's nuclear arsenal.

Adding to the uncertainty, President Xi, in his role as China's commander-in-chief, has raised concerns among foreign diplomats by notably missing a Group of 20 summit in India this month. This marked the first time he had skipped such a global leaders' gathering in his decade in power.

Given these growing uncertainties, some diplomats and analysts are calling for a deeper examination of the true nature of Xi's regime.

"We need to conduct clear-eyed assessments - this goes beyond whether China is a partner or a competitor; it represents an economic, political, and military risk," emphasized Drew Thompson, a former Pentagon official now affiliated with the National University of Singapore.

The lack of transparency surrounding these developments has led to various plausible explanations, further eroding confidence in China's leadership.

Regarding Defense Minister Li's situation and investigation, a ministry spokeswoman claimed no knowledge of the matter, and requests for comment from the State Council and Defense Ministry went unanswered.

Li, who assumed office in March, had played a prominent role in China's military diplomacy, expressing concerns about U.S. military activities at a high-profile security conference in June and visiting Russia and Belarus in August. He was scheduled to host an international security meeting in Beijing in October and represent the People's Liberation Army (PLA) at a meeting of regional defense chiefs in Jakarta in November.

Amid long-standing issues of corruption within China's military and state institutions, some analysts and diplomats speculate that Xi's anti-graft campaigns may be indicative of political purges occurring throughout the Communist Party.

"Regardless of the specific reasons, the perception that such incidents may recur could significantly impact the confidence of foreign actors engaging with their Chinese counterparts," warned Helena Legarda, lead analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Berlin.

The rapid and extensive nature of the upheaval involving Li is unusual and has reached deep into Xi's inner circle.

"This sudden and opaque situation reveals that proximity does not guarantee patronage in Xi's world," noted Alexander Neill, a security analyst based in Singapore and an adjunct fellow with the Pacific Forum think-tank in Hawaii.

Although Li does not hold a direct command position, he serves on Xi's Central Military Commission, a seven-person body, and is one of China's five state councillors, a cabinet-level position surpassing regular ministers. Some scholars believe he maintains a close relationship with General Zhang Youxia, who holds a higher position on the commission and is Xi's closest ally within the PLA.

Li had been sanctioned by Washington in 2018 due to an arms deal with Russia and had notably avoided a meeting with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at the Shangri-la Dialogue security conference in Singapore in June.

While U.S. officials, including Austin, are eager to reinitiate high-level talks with China's military, regional tensions have added complexity to these efforts. Beijing, in response, calls for a less assertive U.S. presence in the Asia-Pacific region.

Regional envoys stress the importance of deeper Chinese military diplomacy, especially with the U.S. and other major powers, as China continues to increase its military presence around Taiwan and in disputed areas of the East and South China Seas.

The uncertainty surrounding Li's situation raises questions about the direction of China's military policies. As the PLA engages with Southeast Asian forces at an unprecedented level this year, the recent changes in Beijing prompt speculation and concerns regarding policy continuity.

"A shake-up in the military at this time is likely to attract attention, given the heightened PLA activity near Taiwan and the East China Sea, as well as increased paramilitary actions in the South China Sea. These actions create potential risks of accidents, escalation, and crises," warned political scientist Ja Ian Chong at the National University of Singapore.