New York - Satellite imagery and aviation data suggest that Russia may be in the process of preparing to test an experimental nuclear-powered cruise missile - or may have recently conducted such a test - with a theoretical range of thousands of miles.

The movements of aircraft and vehicles at or near a base in Russia's remote Arctic region align with the preparations made for tests of the missile, known as the Burevestnik or SSC-X-9 Skyfall, in 2017 and 2018, according to analysis by The New York Times.

U.S. surveillance planes have also been detected in the area over the past two weeks, and aviation alerts have been issued, cautioning pilots to avoid the nearby airspace.

Russia previously conducted 13 known tests between 2017 and 2019, all of which were unsuccessful, according to a report from the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a nonprofit group focused on arms control. Mishaps during testing can be deadly. In one instance, a missile launched in 2019 crashed and eventually exploded during a recovery attempt, resulting in the loss of seven lives, as reported by U.S. officials.

"'It is exotic - it is dangerous in its testing and development phase,' said Daryl G. Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association. Whether the Burevestnik has been tested again since 2019 isn't clear, but even with a successful launch, the missile would still be years away from 'operational deployment,' Kimball added."

In previous tests, the missile failed to travel anywhere close to its designed range, estimated to be around 14,000 miles. During its most successful test flight, which lasted just over two minutes, the missile covered a distance of 22 miles before crashing into the sea. In another test, the missile's nuclear reactor failed to activate, causing it to crash only a few miles from the launch site. For a test to be deemed successful, the missile's nuclear reactor would need to initiate in flight, enabling it to cover a significantly greater distance.

According to the Nuclear Threat Initiative report, the missile is a 'second-strike, strategic-range weapon,' intended to be launched after a wave of nuclear strikes has devastated targets in Russia. While the missile could potentially carry a conventional warhead, it is likely to carry a nuclear payload in practice, albeit a smaller one compared to most other nuclear-capable weapons. If employed during a conflict, the missile could pose a significant threat to large urban areas and military targets, as experts suggest.

While Russia has disclosed little about the specific design of the Burevestnik, President Vladimir Putin has asserted that it is nuclear-powered. The missile is believed to be launched by a solid-fuel rocket motor before a small nuclear reactor activates during flight, theoretically allowing the missile to remain airborne indefinitely.

The Burevestnik is one of six strategic weapons, including others like the Kinzhal ballistic missile and the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle, introduced by Putin in a 2018 speech. He claimed that these weapons could surpass and outmaneuver existing U.S. defenses, stating to the West, 'You have failed to contain Russia.'

Visual evidence of testing preparations includes before-and-after satellite images. Imagery captured on the morning of Sept. 20 shows multiple vehicles on a launchpad at the base, including a truck with a trailer resembling the missile's dimensions. A weather shelter typically covering the launch site had been moved approximately 50 feet. By the afternoon, the trailer had disappeared, and the shelter was restored to its original position.

Additional imagery from Sept. 28 reveals renewed activity at the launchpad, with a similar trailer present and the shelter once again retracted.

On Aug. 31, Russian authorities issued an aviation notice for a 'temporary danger area,' advising pilots to avoid a portion of the Barents Sea off the coast and 12 miles from the launch site, known as Pankovo. The notice has since been extended multiple times and, as of Sunday, was scheduled to remain in effect through Friday. A similar notice was issued by Russia before a Burevestnik test in 2019.

Furthermore, two Russian aircraft specialized in collecting data from missile launches were observed about 100 miles south of the launch site in early August, stationed at the Rogachevo air base, according to satellite image analysis conducted by Bellona, a Norwegian environmental organization. These aircraft belong to Rosatom, the Russian atomic energy company, and they remained at the base at least until Sept. 26, as indicated by additional satellite imagery. Similar aircraft of the same type were present in the vicinity during Burevestnik tests in 2018.

In addition, a U.S. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft, an RC-135W Rivet Joint, conducted at least two missions off the coast of the Arctic island where the launch site is located, on Sept. 19 and Sept. 26, according to the tracking platform Flightradar24. These two missions represented a slight increase from their usual activity.

The highly secretive nature of the Burevestnik missile program and the remote launch location make it challenging to ascertain whether a test is imminent or if the weapon may have recently undergone retesting - or potentially both. While previous launch tests of the Burevestnik have taken place at the Arctic base, Russia could also be testing components of the missile, such as its rocket motor, separately.

The White House declined to comment on the findings reported by The New York Times.

Experts emphasize that the Burevestnik missile is perilous not only due to its capacity to carry a potent nuclear warhead but also because of the potential for it to emit harmful radioactive materials if the missile were to explode or malfunction during a test.

If put into operational use, the Burevestnik would be considered part of Russia's nuclear arsenal, subject to a nuclear arms reduction treaty signed by Moscow in 2011. This agreement imposes limits on the total number of warheads and delivery vehicles that Russia can deploy.

However, with the treaty, known as New START, set to expire in February 2026, the missile could contribute to 'the leading edge of an uncontrolled arms race' if no new agreement replaces the expiring treaty, according to Kimball.

In the end, a test of the missile would signify that Russia is 'moving in the wrong direction,' Kimball concluded.

Article courtesy The New York Times