Sikkim Disaster Underscores Challenges in Developing Glacial Flood Alerts

Sikkim Disaster Underscores Challenges in Developing Glacial Flood Alerts

In a tragic turn of events, the Himalayan state of Sikkim in northeastern India was hit by devastating floods and an avalanche, claiming the lives of at least 40 people and leaving dozens missing.

This disaster, one of the worst in the region in half a century, unfolded just as scientists and government authorities were collaborating on an early warning system for glacial floods at Lhonak Lake.

The initial phase of this warning system involved the installation of a camera to monitor the lake's water level and weather instruments, a project that was shrouded in secrecy until now. If fully operational, this system could have potentially provided valuable time for evacuation.

Geoscientist Simon Allen from the University of Zurich, who was part of the project, expressed the unfortunate timing of the disaster, occurring merely two weeks after their team's presence at the site. The plan was to expand the system by adding a tripwire sensor connected to an alert mechanism that would notify residents to evacuate in the event of an impending burst.

However, the exact design of the system was still under development, according to an Indian official familiar with the project. Unfortunately, the camera component lost power for reasons unknown in late September, as reported by a source at the Swiss embassy, which was supporting the initiative.

The urgency for such warning systems arises from the increasing threat of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) due to climate change warming high mountain regions. Over 200 such lakes now pose a high hazard to communities in the Himalayan region, spanning India, Pakistan, China, Nepal, and Bhutan.

Several neighboring countries have already deployed glacial flood early warning systems in recent years. In India, the plan was to pilot the country's first early warning systems for glacial floods at Lhonak Lake and a nearby lake called Shako Cho in Sikkim, with intentions to expand to other dangerous lakes.

Although these systems aim to mitigate risks, glaciologist Farooq Azam from the Indian Institute of Technology Indore noted that the speed of such events can limit the benefits of early warnings, providing only a matter of minutes or perhaps an hour to respond.

Despite the challenges, India remains committed to installing early warning systems at multiple glacial lakes, as indicated by Kamal Kishore, a senior official at India's National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA).

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