PARIS- In a recent development, the French military intelligence directorate (DRM) has issued a statement suggesting that the tragic explosion at Al-Ahli al-Arabi Hospital in Gaza, which claimed the lives of 471 people, was not the result of an Israeli missile strike, as previously claimed by Palestinian officials. Instead, the DRM indicated that the most likely scenario was a misfiring Palestinian rocket.
The Palestinian health ministry had initially blamed the incident on an Israeli air strike, while Israel contended that it was caused by a failed rocket launch by militants. An unclassified U.S. intelligence report estimated the death toll at 100-300 people and also absolved Israel of responsibility.
The DRM's analysis focused on the size of the impact crater, which was deemed too small to have been caused by an Israeli missile. They suggested that a Palestinian rocket with a 5-kilo explosive charge was the most likely cause, pointing out that Palestinian groups had such rockets in their possession.
The DRM's decision to release this information to the public was made at the instruction of President Emmanuel Macron due to conflicting accounts of the incident's cause. The intelligence directorate ruled out other possibilities, including fragments from Israel's Iron Dome air defense system or intercepted missiles.
The analysis also considered open-source material, including the light structural damage at the hospital, the limited presence of civilian belongings at the blast site, and the absence of any specific blame on a particular group.
While the DRM did not provide an exact death toll, they indicated that it was likely fewer than the initially reported 471 casualties. The situation in Gaza has been tense, with Israel responding to previous attacks by Hamas with a vow to destroy the group, leading to a siege affecting 2.3 million people in the region. More than 4,100 people have lost their lives in strikes on Gaza, leaving over a million homeless, and Israel is reportedly preparing for a ground offensive.