Severe rains wreaking havoc in Eastern Africa have been exacerbated by human-induced climate change, intensifying up to twice their normal strength, according to a report by World Weather Attribution, a group of climate scientists. Since the onset of the rains in October, hundreds of fatalities and widespread impacts have been reported, affecting millions across the region.
The analysis focused on the "short rains" season, typically from October to December, influenced by natural climate phenomena such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). This year, both factors contributed to increased rainfall.
To assess the impact of climate change, researchers compared current warming trends (1.2 degrees Celsius) with a pre-industrial, cooler climate. The findings revealed that global warming had nearly doubled the rainfall magnitude, with the IOD playing a significant role. The period between October and December saw one of the most intense "short rains" seasons in the last four decades. Joyce Kimutai, lead author of the study, emphasized the urgent need to address emissions and curb global warming, noting that the planet is signaling the consequences of continual warming.
The study underscores the disproportionate impact of fossil fuel emissions from wealthier nations on vulnerable populations. Greenhouse gas emissions are reaching record levels, contributing to more frequent and severe climatic events. The World Meteorological Organization predicts 2023 to be the hottest year on record. Climate change could lead to even more extreme events than the current heavy rainfall in Eastern Africa, warns John Musingi, a climatology expert.
The heavy rains have already claimed lives, displaced hundreds of thousands, and destroyed infrastructure in Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, and Tanzania. Cholera and other waterborne diseases are on the rise. The affected communities are grappling with the aftermath of a three-year drought, compounding the challenges posed by climate change. The study emphasizes the strain on government and humanitarian responses and calls for urgent climate change adaptation measures.
In response to the crisis, Melaku Yirga, regional director for Africa at Mercy Corps, urges global leaders to fulfill commitments to support communities in adapting to climate change challenges. The situation in Eastern Africa underscores the pressing need for a regional and comprehensive approach to address the worsening climate crisis, according to Musavengana Chibwana, regional humanitarian advocacy and policy manager for east and southern Africa at Save the Children.