The town of Vovchansk in northeast Ukraine, with a pre-war population of 17,000 reduced to 2,500 before renewed Russian assaults, now has only a few hundred residents left. Ukrainian officials fear Vovchansk may suffer the fate of Bakhmut and Avdiivka, where fierce battles led to Ukrainian withdrawals. According to Kharkiv regional governor Oleh Suniehubov, only 200-300 people remain in Vovchansk as Russian troops attempt to surround it.

Ineffective fortifications and ammunition shortages facilitated Russia's recent advances in the area. Moscow captured significant territory, including seven depopulated villages, totaling 106 square kilometers over two days. This advance could divert Ukrainian forces, allowing heavy fighting to persist in the Donetsk region.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed ongoing intense battles in both regions, with Ukrainian troops defending against a substantial Russian ground offensive. Analysts suggest Russia aims to exploit Ukrainian vulnerabilities before anticipated military aid from the U.S. and Europe arrives. This period is seen as a critical window for Moscow and potentially perilous for Kyiv.

The recent Russian push in Kharkiv aims to tie down Ukrainian forces and potentially draw reserves away from critical areas like Avdiivka and Chasiv Yar in Donetsk. Zelenskyy noted the intensity of fighting in Donetsk, emphasizing the Kremlin's strategy to stretch Ukrainian forces thin by opening a second active front in Kharkiv.

Pokrovsk, previously a town of 60,000, now faces significant conflict just inside the Ukrainian border in Donetsk. Avdiivka's capture in February allowed Russian forces to advance westward toward their goal of controlling all of Donetsk.

The Russian offensive also aims to secure a buffer zone to protect Belgorod, where frequent Ukrainian attacks have occurred. Russian emergency services recently cleared rubble in Belgorod after Ukrainian shelling, which resulted in casualties.

Yevgeny Poddubny, a Russian military correspondent, views the Kharkiv assault as the start of a new phase to push back Ukrainian forces from the border and prevent Kyiv from using rockets to attack Belgorod.