Mumbai - In light of the significant discrepancy between exit poll predictions and actual election results, which caused substantial losses in the stock market on Tuesday, Trinamool Congress' Rajya Sabha MP Saket Gokhale has called for an investigation by SEBI. He has requested SEBI to examine whether the BJP and polling agencies manipulated the stock markets through pollsters.
Gokhale noted that while investors made considerable profits on June 3, 2024, due to a market rally driven by exit poll results, they suffered losses exceeding ₹31 lakh crore (₹31 trillion) on June 4, 2024. He emphasized the importance of investigating whether the India Today Axis MyIndia exit polls were rigged or intentionally skewed to favor the BJP-led NDA, leading to the unprecedented market rally on June 3.
"The exit polls were evidently manipulated to boost the stock market," Gokhale stated. "Investors' substantial losses following the market crash highlight the need for an investigation to determine if pollsters like Axis MyIndia inflated exit polls for the BJP. This is crucial as Axis MyIndia also had BJP as a client."
In his letter to SEBI chairperson Madhabi Puri Buch, Gokhale urged the regulator to investigate whether entities that profited on June 3 subsequently engaged in short selling on June 4 to amplify their gains.
Since the market's downturn on Tuesday, there has been a recovery, with PM Modi set to take his oath for a third term on June 8 with support from allies like TDP and JD(U). After a 3% gain on Wednesday, recovering half of Tuesday's losses, Nifty was trading nearly 1% higher today.
Despite the election setback, most brokerages have maintained a bullish outlook on Indian equities. However, they caution that pre-welfare measures might delay the growth agenda driven by capital expenditure and reforms.
Sunil Sanghai of NovaaOne explained, "Market euphoria typically peaks before elections. Historically, markets soften post-results unless there are extraordinary circumstances. A similar trend occurs leading up to the first union budget of a new government, where high expectations often lead to disappointment. However, over time, the market reverts to fundamentals, reacting to economic realities."