Kyiv/Moscow - Since the approval of a crucial military aid package by U.S. lawmakers this spring, Ukrainian firepower has been improving, albeit not swiftly enough to stop the Russian advance in eastern Ukraine. Despite the influx of Western munitions reducing Kyiv’s significant artillery shortfall, Moscow’s forces continue to gain ground along the snaking front line. The dry summer conditions and extended daylight are expected to further support the Russian push.

Currently, Ukraine remains on the defensive in the Donetsk region, where Russian forces are inflicting heavy losses on Ukrainian troops during rotations and edging closer to critical Ukrainian supply routes. To counter this, Kyiv has adopted a bend-but-don’t-break strategy, retreating to better-defended positions to buy time until more Western weapons and ammunition arrive at the front. This approach allows Ukraine to conserve its forces and fight more effectively from fortified positions, as noted by senior Ukrainian military leaders and analysts.

The arrival of Western weapons and ammunition, though gradual, has begun to strengthen Ukraine's front-line capabilities since U.S. President Joe Biden authorized the aid package in April. However, it will take weeks, if not months, for Ukraine to fully replenish its depleted stocks. Ivan Havryliuk, Ukraine’s first deputy minister of defense, highlighted the logistical challenges, noting that shipping supplies across the Atlantic is time-consuming. Despite these delays, Ukraine has managed to shrink Russia’s artillery advantage from 7-to-1 at the start of the year to 5-to-1.

To counter Russian air superiority, Ukraine is awaiting the delivery of 130 F-16 fighter jets expected later this year and early next. Havryliuk expressed confidence that these jets will eventually give Ukraine an edge in the air.

The 110th Brigade, fighting near the Russian-occupied village of Ocheretyne, has seen a 75% improvement in ammunition supplies compared to last winter, according to brigade press officer Ivan Sekach. However, the supplies are still insufficient to halt Russian advances and often lack the large calibers most needed. Similarly, the 47th Brigade, fighting on the outskirts of Avdiivka, is struggling with a shortage of anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles. Deputy battalion commander Oleksandr emphasized the need for a continuous supply of ammunition to sustain operations without having to prioritize targets stringently.

Elastic Defense Strategy and Operational Adjustments
Ukraine’s elastic defensive strategy aims to delay Russian advances until it can better arm and provision its troops. By retreating to more defensible positions, Ukrainian forces can conserve personnel and fight more efficiently. This strategy marks a shift from the prolonged battle for Bakhmut, where heavy casualties were incurred in a bid to hold ground. According to Dylan Lee Lehrke, an analyst with IHS Jane’s, this approach allows Ukraine to buy time and prepare for future advantages.

The improved flexibility in Ukrainian defenses has been beneficial. “We had to spread out our positions and our logistics, too. We are doing it a lot smarter now,” Sekach noted, reflecting Ukraine’s adaptive tactics in response to the ongoing Russian offensive.

Intensified Russian Tactics and Ukrainian Countermeasures
Russia’s offensive in the Donetsk region focuses on areas around Avdiivka and Chasiv Yar, making steady gains. The fall of Chasiv Yar would jeopardize nearby cities, compromise Ukrainian supply routes, and advance Russia’s goal of seizing the entire Donetsk region. With approximately 650,000 troops in Ukraine, Russia’s tactical shifts have included exploiting Ukraine’s vulnerabilities through frequent nighttime attacks and the use of deceptive tactics to confuse Ukrainian defenses.

Russian signal jamming has significantly reduced the effectiveness of Ukrainian strike drones, further complicating defensive efforts. Ukrainian commanders attribute these challenges to superior Russian capabilities and poor communication within their own electronic warfare and drone units.

Russian attacks on Ukrainian supply routes have forced frequent changes in delivery schedules and routes. In the Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka areas, armored vehicles, well-plotted routes, and supply-carrying drones have become necessary for resupplying the front. Oleksandr of the 47th Brigade noted that deliveries have become more complicated, reducing the frequency of ammunition supply runs.

Furthermore, improved Russian targeting during troop rotations has increased Ukrainian casualties. Russia’s constant drone surveillance has made it difficult to mask large troop movements, leaving soldiers vulnerable during transitions. Tor, the commander of the Kotyky unit in Chasiv Yar, described the perilous conditions, with soldiers often exposed to open-air bombardments and forced to find cover while navigating constant threats.

Despite these challenges, Ukrainian forces continue to adapt and fight strategically, hoping that the continued influx of Western aid will eventually shift the balance in their favor.