In the recent snap presidential elections in Iran, the race is tightly contested between Massoud Pezeshkian, a moderate candidate, and Saeed Jalili, a hardline former nuclear negotiator. The provisional results from the interior ministry show that out of over 14 million votes counted, Pezeshkian has secured over 5.9 million votes, while Jalili has garnered 5.5 million. The turnout is estimated at around 40%, which is lower than anticipated by Iran's clerical rulers. Reports from Tehran and other cities indicated low voter turnout.

Tasnim news agency has suggested a run-off election is highly probable to determine the successor to President Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash last month. If no candidate achieves over 50% of the votes, a run-off will occur between the top two candidates on the first Friday after the results are finalized.

This election coincides with rising regional tensions due to the conflict involving Israel, Hamas in Gaza, and Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as increasing Western pressure on Iran over its advancing nuclear program. While the election is not expected to significantly alter Iran's main policies, it could affect the future succession of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the 85-year-old supreme leader.

The clerical establishment aimed for high voter turnout to counteract a legitimacy crisis fueled by public dissatisfaction over economic issues and social restrictions. The next president will manage day-to-day government operations and influence both foreign and domestic policy.

Pezeshkian advocates for improved relations with the West, economic reform, social liberalization, and political pluralism. In contrast, Jalili, who opposes the West, could lead to a more confrontational stance in Iran’s policies. The election featured a limited choice of candidates, with three hardliners and one moderate approved by a strict watchdog body from an initial pool of 80 candidates.

Critics argue that the declining turnout in recent elections, such as the 48% in the 2021 presidential election and the record low of 41% in the parliamentary election, indicates eroding legitimacy of the system. All candidates have pledged to address the economic crisis, which is plagued by mismanagement, corruption, and sanctions reimposed since the U.S. withdrew from Tehran's nuclear deal in 2018.

Pezeshkian, backed by the sidelined reformist faction, emphasized humane enforcement of the hijab law, referencing the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini in morality police custody. This incident led to widespread protests, marking significant opposition to Iran's clerical rulers. Pezeshkian aims to rekindle the interest of reform-minded voters, who have largely abstained from voting in recent years. Meanwhile, the hashtag #ElectionCircus has been popular on X, with some activists calling for a boycott to avoid legitimizing the Islamic Republic.