Recent Israeli strikes in Beirut and Tehran, targeting senior figures in Hamas and Hezbollah, have put both Hezbollah and Iran in a difficult position. These attacks, considered serious security breaches, demand a response to reestablish deterrence without causing further escalation that could lead to a regional war.

In Beirut, an Israeli strike killed a top Hezbollah commander accused of a missile attack on the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights that resulted in the deaths of 12 children and teenagers. This strike occurred in a densely populated area where Hezbollah has many offices, resulting in the deaths of at least five civilians and injuring dozens more. This escalation demands a response from Hezbollah, as failing to act could set a precedent for future attacks on civilian areas.

Shortly after the Beirut strike, an Israeli airstrike in Tehran killed Ismail Haniyeh, the chief of Hamas' political bureau, who was attending the inauguration of Iran's new president. Israel has not confirmed its involvement in this strike. The assassination happened amidst ongoing efforts to negotiate a cease-fire and hostage exchange following a prolonged conflict in Gaza.

Hezbollah and Iran feel compelled to retaliate, though their responses are expected to differ. Analysts like Mohanad Hage Ali from the Carnegie Middle East Center suggest Hezbollah will need to expand its response beyond the usual border clashes with Israel, targeting deeper into Israeli territory to maintain its deterrence credibility. Andreas Krieg of King’s College London believes Hezbollah will likely target a significant military installation rather than civilians to avoid further escalation.

Hezbollah views the Beirut strike as a violation of engagement rules, given it targeted a commander at his home in a civilian area. Nabih Awada, a Lebanese analyst, indicates that Hezbollah is likely to respond with an attack on a significant target, possibly in Haifa.

For Iran, the situation is complex. The strike on Haniyeh, a prominent figure, on Iranian soil during a high-profile event, represents a significant embarrassment and challenges Iran’s ability to protect important figures. Some analysts believe Iran might use its proxies for retaliation, targeting Israeli or Jewish entities globally, while others, like Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute, anticipate a direct response from Iran.

Despite these tensions, diplomatic interventions, particularly from the United States, could help contain further escalation, as they did in a similar situation in April when Iran retaliated against an Israeli strike with minimal damage. However, the current climate is precarious, with numerous variables that could lead to further conflict, indicating a critical juncture in the ongoing tensions in the region.