In the hours leading up to a Ukrainian assault on Russia’s western border, there were no signs from Moscow that anything was amiss. On the midnight of August 6, the Russian defense ministry reported that over 2,500 soldiers, who had captured a town in eastern Ukraine, were to be awarded for their heroism. Later that morning, as Ukraine launched the largest invasion of Russia since World War II, the ministry released footage of General Valery Gerasimov, the commander of the Russian war effort, visiting a different combat zone in Ukraine. The footage, however, did not hint at the unfolding events in the Kursk region, which threatened Gerasimov’s plans and could alter the course of the war.

Local panic quickly spread as the Ukrainian invasion progressed, despite efforts by Russian authorities to maintain control, according to a Reuters timeline of the first two days of the incursion. The surprise Ukrainian attack has raised questions about Russia’s intelligence capabilities and the effectiveness of its border defenses. French military expert Yohann Michel noted that Russia’s failure to anticipate the attack could be due to assumptions that Ukraine, with its forces retreating in eastern Ukraine, would not risk such a high-stakes operation.

Ukraine’s goals in the Kursk incursion appear to include diverting Russian forces from the front line in the Donetsk region. However, fighting in Donetsk has intensified, increasing the risks for Ukraine as it attempts to hold ground in Kursk. Russian MP and former military officer Andrei Gurulyov mentioned that Russian military leaders were warned about potential Ukrainian attacks a month before the incursion, but the warning went unheeded.

The Russian defense ministry and Ukraine’s armed forces have remained largely silent on the ongoing operations. It wasn’t until the afternoon of August 7 that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Gerasimov publicly addressed the events in Kursk, with Putin describing them as “another major provocation” by Ukraine. Gerasimov claimed that Russian forces had stopped up to 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers from advancing deep into Kursk.

The Russian response to the incursion was delayed, with it taking nearly 12 hours for the defense ministry to publicly acknowledge the Ukrainian attack. Kursk’s acting governor, Alexei Smirnov, took on the role of communicating with the public, issuing missile warnings and updating residents on the situation. Despite efforts to assure the public, many residents began to evacuate, with over 100 people reported missing since the incursion began, including many elderly individuals.

The situation in Kursk has raised concerns about the effectiveness of Russian border defenses. Ukraine’s National Resistance Center previously reported that many strongholds along the border were deserted, potentially due to corruption. Ukrainian forces were able to breach the fortifications in Kursk, which were reportedly built at a cost of 15 billion rubles ($168 million), using a variety of engineering equipment.

Responsibility for defending the Russian border is shared between regular troops, FSB border forces, and the national guard. Smirnov initially claimed that the border had been secured, but later acknowledged the difficulty of the situation. Despite Gerasimov’s optimistic assessment to Putin, the operation remains ongoing, with more than 100,000 Russians displaced and Ukraine claiming control of over 1,000 square kilometers (390 square miles) of the Kursk region.