Singapore - In response to escalating tensions in the Middle East, several major airlines, including Singapore Airlines, British Airways, and Lufthansa, have increased their flights over Afghanistan after largely avoiding the region for years. This shift comes as carriers reassess the relative safety of airspaces amid the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel.

Afghanistan, lying on key routes between Asia and Europe, had been largely bypassed by airlines since the Taliban's takeover three years ago, which led to the cessation of air traffic control services. Despite these services still being unavailable, airlines now view Afghan airspace as safer compared to the increasingly volatile skies between Iran and Israel. Initially, many carriers had redirected their flights through Iran and the Middle East after Western airlines were barred from Russian airspace following the outbreak of the Ukraine war in 2022.

"The calculus of which airspace to use has changed as conflicts have evolved," said Ian Petchenik, a spokesperson for the flight-tracking organization Flightradar24. "Airlines are seeking to mitigate risk as much as possible and see overflying Afghanistan as the safer option given the current tensions."

According to a Reuters analysis of Flightradar24 data, flights over Afghanistan in the second week of August were more than seven times higher than during the same period last year. The trend began in mid-April during missile and drone attacks between Iran and Israel, prompting airlines like Lufthansa, Singapore Airlines, and British Airways to reroute some flights over Afghanistan. However, the largest increase in overflights occurred after the late July killing of senior Hamas and Hezbollah members, raising fears of a major escalation in the Middle East conflict.

Despite the strategic shift, concerns among pilots persist. "You're depending on the analysis of your airline," said Otjan de Bruin, a commercial pilot and head of the European Cockpit Association. "Every time I fly out there, I don't like the feeling of flying over a conflict area where you don't know, actually, what is happening. It's always safe enough, until proven otherwise."

Lufthansa Group resumed overflights of Afghan airspace from early July, while other carriers, including Turkish Airlines, Thai Airways, and Air France-KLM, have also increased their use of this route since April. KLM emphasized that its flights over Afghanistan are limited to specific routes and only at high altitudes based on current security assessments.

The decision to reroute over Afghanistan has been facilitated by regulatory changes. The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in early July allowed planes to fly at a lower altitude over the Wakhan Corridor in northeastern Afghanistan, a path that connects Tajikistan and Pakistan. The FAA had already lifted its ban on overflights across Afghanistan a year earlier, but stipulated that planes must remain above 32,000 feet to minimize the risk from surface-to-air weapons.

Despite the increasing traffic, concerns remain about the lack of air traffic control in Afghanistan. Pilots rely on communication with nearby planes according to protocols established by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and Afghanistan's Civil Aviation Authority. The European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) also warned in July that "extremist non-state actor groups remain active and might sporadically target aviation facilities."

The memory of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17, which was shot down over eastern Ukraine in 2014, continues to haunt the industry. Airlines are now under pressure to save costs by using shorter, more direct routes as they recover from the pandemic and adapt to the loss of access to Russian airspace.

Central Afghanistan offers a more direct route into southern Asia from Europe, especially for airlines avoiding Russia, Ukraine, or Iran. "This route saved us a fair chunk of time and fuel," reported a pilot in July after flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur across central Afghanistan.