In a diplomatic standoff that has shaken bilateral relations, India and Canada have expelled top diplomats from each other’s countries following allegations linking Indian officials to the murder of a Sikh separatist leader in Canada. The unprecedented move unfolded this week, with Canada expelling six Indian diplomats on Monday, accusing them of targeting dissidents. India quickly retaliated, ordering six Canadian diplomats to leave.

This tit-for-tat action has strained ties between the two nations, but political analysts suggest that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau might see short-term political gains despite the fallout.

Narendra Modi, facing political challenges after his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) unexpectedly lost its majority in a June election, could benefit from bolstered public support. Harsh Vardhan Shringla, India’s former foreign secretary, believes that the public will rally behind Modi’s strong stance. "The public will strongly back Prime Minister Modi and the government," Shringla said, noting that Modi’s hawkish stance on national security could resonate with voters.

Similarly, Harsh Pant from the Observer Research Foundation suggested that the more Trudeau targets India, the more Modi's image as a defender of national sovereignty could grow. "Modi and his popularity will not be dented," Pant said.

In Canada, Trudeau's Liberal Party is trailing in the polls ahead of a national election in 2025. Analysts believe this incident might shift attention away from internal party discontent and bolster his stance on protecting Canadian sovereignty. Trudeau, addressing the media, emphasized the importance of standing up against foreign interference, a message echoed by opposition leaders, who backed the expulsions.

However, analysts like Cristine de Clercy, a professor of politics at Trent University, cautioned that any political boost for Trudeau would likely be brief. "The list of domestic issues that he has to address is so much longer and more complicated than this single incident," she said.

While the Sikh community in Canada, which has historically supported Trudeau’s Liberal Party, voiced approval for the expulsions, Moninder Singh of the B.C. Gurdwaras Council said the dispute was unlikely to have a significant impact on domestic politics. "It shows that the government is actually holding India to account," Singh said.

As tensions between the two nations simmer, both leaders seem poised to capitalize on their assertive stances, albeit with uncertain long-term consequences.