A new report from the United Nations warns that the world is on track for a devastating 3°C (5.4°F) rise in global temperatures by the end of this century unless significant climate actions are taken. This prediction is more than double the 1.5°C (2.7°F) target set under the 2015 Paris Agreement. The findings were released in the annual Emissions Gap Report, which evaluates current climate pledges against the reductions needed to limit global warming.

According to the report, global greenhouse gas emissions have continued to rise, reaching 57.1 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2023—a 1.3% increase from the previous year. Under current commitments, global temperatures are projected to increase by 2.6°C to 2.8°C (4.7°F to 5°F) by 2100, remaining well above safe thresholds. The report emphasizes that countries have made minimal progress toward their 2030 climate goals, particularly the G20 member states.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres issued a stark warning, saying, “We’re teetering on a planetary tightrope. Either leaders bridge the emissions gap, or we plunge headlong into climate disaster.” The report calls for a 42% reduction in yearly greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and a 57% reduction by 2035 to have any hope of limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C—a goal now seen as increasingly out of reach.

Nations will gather next month in Azerbaijan for the annual U.N. climate summit (COP29). The negotiations in Baku will shape the future of global climate strategies and inform updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), due by February 2025. U.N. Environment Programme Executive Director Inger Andersen urged countries to intensify their commitments during the upcoming talks. “Every fraction of a degree avoided counts,” she said.

The summit aims to build on last year’s agreement to transition away from fossil fuels, a crucial step toward mitigating the most severe impacts of climate change.