In a stark warning issued Thursday, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) cautioned that Myanmar's Rakhine state is on the "precipice of an unprecedented disaster," facing a possible famine due to ongoing conflict, economic collapse, and severe food shortages. This region, home to the Rohingya Muslim minority, is gripped by violence between Myanmar’s military forces and the Arakan Army, a powerful Rakhine ethnic group seeking autonomy.

The UNDP report describes a “perfect storm” of interrelated crises in western Rakhine, with severe restrictions on essential goods from Myanmar and Bangladesh, a lack of income, skyrocketing prices, and a breakdown in essential services. This grim combination has left the population “highly vulnerable” and potentially on “the brink of collapse in the coming months,” the agency warned.

Ethnic tensions have long plagued Myanmar’s Buddhist-majority government, which has labeled the Rohingya as “Bengalis” despite their generations-long presence in Myanmar. Stripped of citizenship since 1982, the Rohingya have faced systematic persecution. In 2017, a violent crackdown by Myanmar’s military forced 740,000 Rohingya to flee to Bangladesh, with accusations of mass atrocities, including rape, killings, and destruction of homes.

In recent years, following the military coup in 2021 that ousted the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, the Arakan Army has gained momentum, controlling over half of Rakhine’s townships. This well-armed group, part of an alliance of ethnic militias, has fought for autonomy, further destabilizing the region.

The UNDP stressed the urgent need for immediate access to aid and trade, as well as financial resources to revive the agricultural sector. “Without urgent action, 95% of the population will regress into survival mode, left to fend for themselves,” the agency cautioned. Closing its appeal, the UNDP warned of the potential isolation of Rakhine as a "zone of deep human suffering," urging the international community to respond promptly to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe.