Paris: French lawmakers are set to vote on Wednesday on no-confidence motions that are likely to bring down Michel Barnier's fragile coalition government, plunging the eurozone’s second-largest economy deeper into political turmoil. If successful, it would mark the first time in over six decades that a French government has been ousted by a no-confidence vote, adding to the country’s challenges as it grapples with a soaring budget deficit.

Debates are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. (1500 GMT), with the vote expected three hours later. Meanwhile, President Emmanuel Macron is returning from a state visit to Saudi Arabia amidst mounting political tensions. The collapse of Barnier’s government would leave a leadership vacuum at a critical time for Europe, with Germany in the midst of elections and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump preparing to assume office.

Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau warned that a no-confidence vote would plunge France into chaos, accusing those backing the motion of endangering the country’s future. From Saudi Arabia, Macron dismissed the likelihood of the vote, expressing confidence in his government's survival and reaffirming his commitment to his presidential mandate.

The crisis escalated after Barnier attempted to push through a contentious social security budget without parliamentary approval, failing to secure support from Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, which had previously backed his minority coalition. Both Barnier’s camp and Le Pen’s allies blamed each other for the impasse, with Le Pen justifying her party's support for a left-wing no-confidence motion as a constitutional necessity to protect French interests.

If the motion succeeds, Macron may appoint Barnier as a caretaker prime minister while searching for a replacement, a process that could extend into next year. The caretaker government would likely implement emergency measures to extend current spending and tax provisions, leaving Barnier's planned deficit-reduction measures in limbo. His draft budget aimed to cut the fiscal deficit, projected to exceed 6% of GDP this year, through €60 billion in tax increases and spending cuts, targeting a 5% deficit next year.

Le Pen, whose party’s support for the motion has proven pivotal, faces risks as she seeks to balance her populist credentials with efforts to present herself as a stable leader. Polls reveal lingering public skepticism about the National Rally, with many voters viewing the party as a threat to democracy. Internal challenges also loom, with rising support within her party for its current leader, Jordan Bardella.

Macron, who triggered the political crisis by calling snap elections in June, cannot be removed by parliament and is set to remain in office until 2027. However, the collapse of Barnier’s government would pose a significant challenge to his leadership and complicate efforts to navigate France through its economic and political difficulties.