Washington: Advisers to President-elect Donald Trump are floating proposals to resolve the Ukraine war, which involve significant concessions to Russia, according to a Reuters analysis and interviews with sources close to the administration. These plans include halting Ukraine's NATO ambitions and potentially ceding territory to Moscow for the foreseeable future.
Retired Army Lieutenant-General Keith Kellogg, Trump's incoming Russia-Ukraine envoy, is among the key figures shaping these proposals. His plan, co-authored with Fred Fleitz, advocates freezing current battle lines and conditioning U.S. military aid on Ukraine’s willingness to negotiate. Conversely, Russia would face increased aid to Ukraine if it refuses to engage in talks.
During his campaign, Trump vowed to resolve the nearly three-year-long conflict within 24 hours of his inauguration, though details remain scarce. Analysts and former officials are skeptical, citing the war’s complexity and entrenched positions from both Moscow and Kyiv.
Three main proposals have surfaced:
Kellogg’s Approach: Freeze the conflict’s frontlines, pause NATO membership for Ukraine, and offer U.S. security guarantees after a peace accord is reached.
JD Vance’s Plan: Establish a heavily fortified demilitarized zone along the current frontlines and block NATO membership for Ukraine.
Richard Grenell’s Concept: Create “autonomous zones” in eastern Ukraine and deprioritize Ukraine’s NATO bid.
These ideas have sparked mixed reactions and raised concerns about their feasibility and acceptance by Ukraine, European allies, and U.S. lawmakers.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, grappling with manpower shortages and territorial setbacks, has signaled openness to negotiations but insists on a NATO invitation as part of his “Victory Plan.” European allies and the Biden administration continue to support Ukraine with military aid, potentially undercutting Trump’s leverage.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, analysts say, appears disinclined to compromise, particularly on conditions like Ukraine relinquishing NATO aspirations and ceding occupied territories. “Putin is in no hurry,” said Eugene Rumer, a former U.S. intelligence analyst on Russia.
Critics also question Trump’s ability to unite Congress around any proposal involving additional aid to Ukraine, given opposition from some of his closest allies.
Advisers acknowledge that any resolution would likely hinge on direct negotiations between Trump, Putin, and Zelenskiy. While Trump’s camp has hinted at using a combination of threats and incentives to bring the parties to the table, details remain vague.
Meanwhile, international observers and political analysts remain skeptical about the potential success of these plans. As Danny Russel of the Asia Society Policy Institute remarked, "The war’s dynamics defy simplistic solutions, and the stakes are higher than ever."
The proposals underscore Trump’s determination to present himself as a dealmaker, but they also highlight the significant diplomatic and political hurdles he faces in addressing one of the world’s most intractable conflicts.