Pacific island nations, caught in the crossfire of the strategic rivalry between the U.S. and China, have expressed hope for continued engagement from President-elect Donald Trump. However, they are concerned about the growing competition potentially escalating into confrontation, according to diplomats.

A 2023 defense agreement between Papua New Guinea (PNG) and the U.S. granted the U.S. military access to key ports and airfields across the country, accompanied by a $3.5 billion commitment to infrastructure, training, and equipment. This marks the first time the U.S. has publicly disclosed its investment in PNG's defense deal.

While PNG strengthens its defense ties with the U.S., the country will continue its trade relationships with China, reflecting concerns among Pacific leaders about the increasing U.S.-China rivalry. "The main concern is the Pacific doesn't want to be forced into a position where it has to choose," said Meg Taylor, the Pacific Islands Forum secretary-general during Trump's first term.

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell noted that Washington is in "acute strategic competition" with China in the Pacific, where Beijing is eyeing a potential military base. He urged the incoming Trump administration to maintain its presence in the region, citing the progress made under Biden with new embassies, increased coast guard patrols, and expanded aid.

Though the U.S. has long maintained strong defense ties with northern Pacific islands, including its military base in Guam, Biden has worked to catch up to China's growing influence in the South Pacific. Last month, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin visited Fiji to begin negotiations for a military agreement, and the defense deal with PNG, which was signed in response to a Chinese security pact with the Solomon Islands, is already under construction.

Despite these developments, PNG's Foreign Minister Justin Tkatchenko stated that it is "wait and see" for Trump, while emphasizing that work on defense infrastructure, such as runways and fuel storage, is already underway.

Although a U.S. State Department spokesman noted that the agreement aims to address shared defense and security challenges, no specific financial amount has been officially tied to it. Trump's expected Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, is a known China critic who has previously advocated for blocking China's expansion in the Pacific, particularly regarding subsea cables.

Meg Keen, a senior fellow at the Lowy Institute, emphasized that Trump's past presidency demonstrated an understanding of the Pacific's strategic importance. However, U.S. diplomacy could be complicated by Trump's stance on climate change, which is a critical issue for Pacific island nations facing rising sea levels.

While some diplomats believe U.S. funding for climate adaptation projects will continue, even if rebranded, Pacific leaders are cautious about Rubio's hawkish rhetoric on China. "More confrontation in the Pacific will not be welcome and could work against the U.S.," said Keen. "A Trump administration might take a harder line, but the art of the deal is not to alienate leaders important to regional security."