The fall of the BGP5 barracks, a key military stronghold in northern Rakhine State, marks a significant and humiliating defeat for Myanmar’s military junta in the ongoing civil war. The Arakan Army (AA), an insurgent group fighting for self-governance, laid siege to the barracks for months before forcing the junta's troops to surrender in a dramatic and brutal battle.

The BGP5, which stands for Border Guard Police, was the last fortified outpost for the military along the 270km border with Bangladesh. The barracks were built on the site of Myo Thu Gyi, a Muslim Rohingya village burned down during the military’s 2017 operations that displaced over 700,000 Rohingya.

AA fighters, often barefoot and armed with an assortment of weapons, faced grueling challenges in breaching the compound. The junta’s soldiers had fortified the base with deep trenches, spike pits, bunkers, and over a thousand landmines. Despite heavy casualties, the AA advanced slowly, digging their own trenches to avoid airstrikes and artillery fire.

The siege, which began in June, culminated in a surrender last weekend. AA footage revealed demoralized and injured soldiers emerging from the ruins, many hobbling on makeshift crutches or carrying white flags. Inside the wreckage, the AA found piles of bodies, reportedly numbering over 450 dead soldiers.

The captured commander, Brigadier-General Thurein Tun, was paraded alongside other officers under the AA’s banner, a symbolic blow to the junta's morale.

The fall of BGP5 cedes complete control of Myanmar’s border with Bangladesh to the AA, with Rakhine State’s capital, Sittwe, now the junta’s last significant holdout. This victory makes the AA one of Myanmar’s most formidable insurgent groups.

Formed in 2009, the AA has grown into a disciplined and well-funded force, leveraging support and weapons from alliances with other insurgent groups on Myanmar’s Chinese border. The group has effectively administered the territories it controls, operating as a de facto government in Rakhine State.

The conflict has left northern Rakhine in ruins. According to witnesses, 80% of housing in Maungdaw and nearby villages has been destroyed. Tens of thousands of civilians have fled, and the United Nations has warned of a looming famine due to food shortages and a military blockade.

The AA’s capacity to manage this humanitarian crisis remains uncertain. While the group has promised to include all communities in its vision for self-rule, relations with the Rohingya population remain fraught.

The plight of the Rohingya population, numbering around 600,000 in Rakhine, remains precarious. Tensions with the ethnic Rakhine majority, the AA’s support base, are high. While some Rohingya express hope for better treatment under AA rule, others face expulsion from captured towns.

In a concerning development, the AA has denounced Rohingya groups that allied with the junta. In August, dozens of Rohingya civilians, including women and children, were reportedly killed by AA drone strikes while trying to flee to Bangladesh.

“We cannot deny the persecution we’ve faced for years, but our situation today is even more difficult than under the junta,” a Rohingya refugee in Bangladesh told the BBC.

The AA’s victory raises questions about the broader goals of Myanmar’s ethnic insurgent groups. While the shadow government promises a federal political system with regional autonomy, some fear that the insurgents may prioritize consolidating their gains over overthrowing the junta.

China, a key regional player, has called for a ceasefire, favoring a negotiated settlement that could leave the military’s influence intact. Whether the insurgents, including the AA, will continue their fight or strike deals with external support remains uncertain.

For now, the capture of BGP5 highlights the junta’s crumbling control over Myanmar and the growing strength of ethnic resistance movements, reshaping the nation’s political and humanitarian landscape.