As 2025 approaches, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finds himself at a critical juncture, facing major strategic decisions in the ongoing conflict with Iran and its allies. The Israeli leader is focused on securing his long-term military goals, which include solidifying Israel’s control over Gaza, curbing Iran's nuclear ambitions, and capitalizing on the weakening of Tehran’s regional partners—Palestinian Hamas, Lebanon's Hezbollah, and the Syrian regime under Bashar al-Assad.
Iran, observers note, faces a stark choice in 2025: continue its nuclear enrichment program or scale back its activities in exchange for negotiations. Middle East experts suggest that Israel could escalate its military operations against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, although this would not eliminate the threat entirely. Palestinian analyst Ghassan al-Khatib also noted that the pragmatic leadership of Iran may be willing to compromise to avoid military confrontation.
The future of U.S. policy under President-elect Donald Trump could have a significant impact. Trump is expected to intensify sanctions against Iran, particularly targeting its oil industry, following his withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement. However, critics argue that diplomacy remains a more effective long-term strategy.
Amid the tensions with Iran and Gaza, Netanyahu’s legacy will also be shaped by his ongoing corruption trial, which resumed in December 2024. Netanyahu’s government is reportedly close to agreeing on a ceasefire with Hamas to end the ongoing Gaza war, but sources suggest Israel will maintain military control over Gaza in the absence of a viable post-war solution involving the Palestinian Authority, which Netanyahu rejects. The failure to reach a lasting political resolution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict means the prospects for Palestinian statehood remain increasingly remote, especially with the rise in settler violence and the growing confidence of settler leaders.
Netanyahu’s vision, which has become more entrenched under the Trump administration, opposes a two-state solution and seeks to maintain Israel’s control over Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem. This aligns with the U.S. administration’s “Deal of the Century,” a plan that would allow Israel to annex large areas of the West Bank, including settlements and the Jordan Valley, while recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s "undivided capital."
On Israel’s northeastern border, Syria faces a turning point following the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebel group. The HTS, now led by Abu Mohammed al-Golani, must stabilize Syria’s fractured state, balancing its ideology with the demands of Syria’s diverse population. Experts warn that the group’s ability to move beyond its Islamist roots and embrace Syrian nationalism will determine whether Syria can avoid long-term instability.
As 2025 unfolds, the Middle East stands at a crossroads, with significant political and military developments that will shape the region’s future for years to come.