When Syrian rebel leader Ahmed al-Sharaa delivered a victory speech in Damascus following the swift military campaign that ousted Bashar al-Assad’s regime, one remark stood out for its understated significance: Syria, he declared, had become the world's largest producer of Captagon. This potent and addictive amphetamine, commonly known as "poor man's cocaine," has flooded the Middle East over the last decade, transforming Syria into a hub of illicit drug production amidst a shattered economy.

Syria’s Captagon trade, which has exploded in scope amid war, sanctions, and mass displacement, has grown into a multibillion-dollar industry, with the World Bank estimating its annual value at $5.6 billion. While Captagon's widespread production is often linked to criminal gangs, suspicion has long pointed to the Syrian government itself, with evidence suggesting that the Assad regime is deeply involved in orchestrating the trade.

In the months following al-Sharaa’s comments, images surfaced that supported these suspicions. Videos from Syrians raiding alleged regime-linked properties showed warehouses full of Captagon pills being manufactured and hidden in fake industrial products. Other footage revealed piles of Captagon found at a Syrian military airbase, reportedly set ablaze by rebels.

In my investigation for a BBC World Service documentary, I saw how Captagon use has permeated various social classes across the region, from wealthy youth in Saudi Arabia to the working-class populations in Jordan. One addict I met, Yasser, shared his devastating experience: "I was 19 when I started taking Captagon, and my life began to unravel. I started hanging out with others who used, and soon, work and survival took a toll on my health."

As rebel forces like al-Sharaa’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) take control in Syria, there are growing concerns about how they will manage the vast number of people addicted to Captagon, particularly with supplies disrupted. Experts like Caroline Rose, a researcher on Syrian drug trafficking, worry that a crackdown on the supply might not be accompanied by efforts to reduce demand, leaving a deep void in treatment and rehabilitation options.

The broader economic consequences of ending the Captagon trade are also unclear. As a major source of revenue, the collapse of this illicit industry would have profound effects on Syria’s economy, especially as criminal groups could be poised to replace those currently in power.

Captagon’s spread has ignited a real narco-war across the Middle East, with countries like Jordan and Saudi Arabia struggling to curb the trade. Jordanian soldiers, for instance, have died in clashes with smugglers along the desert border with Syria. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has even suspended fruit and vegetable imports from Lebanon after finding Captagon hidden in produce.

My investigation also implicated key players in the Captagon trade—specifically, Assad’s inner circle and the Syrian military, particularly the Fourth Division led by his brother, Maher al-Assad. Leaked WhatsApp conversations from a Captagon trader imprisoned in Lebanon revealed the Fourth Division’s role, underscoring the extent of the military's involvement in this thriving narcotics network.

While Syria's economic collapse and soldiers' meager pay have contributed to the rise of criminal activities like Captagon smuggling, the trade is also deeply rooted in Syria's war economy. As I learned from a soldier in a regime unit, Captagon was seen as a lucrative alternative to the meager $30 monthly salary, leading many to turn to the drug trade for survival.

In May 2023, Syria’s re-admission to the Arab League, after a 12-year suspension due to its violent suppression of protests, was partly facilitated by promises from Assad to combat the Captagon trade. However, as rebel groups consolidate their power, questions loom over how they will handle this criminal empire.

Issam Al Reis, a former Syrian military engineer who defected in 2011, believes that while the main players have fled, new criminals may be eager to fill the void. Without addressing the root causes of Captagon addiction and offering viable alternatives, the risk remains that Syria’s ongoing drug trade will evolve into a new form of exploitation.

Caroline Rose cautions that while Captagon exports have already dropped, there’s a troubling rise in the trafficking of crystal meth, as users accustomed to Captagon seek stronger alternatives. With many of Syria’s Captagon producers still operating within the country, the road to eradicating the drug trade is a long and uncertain one.

As Syria’s future remains entangled with illicit industries like Captagon production, the question becomes whether the international community can help Syrians transition into a legitimate economy. The challenge ahead is immense: breaking the cycle of addiction and criminality that has flourished for years, particularly when old habits die hard.