Russia has officially ceased natural gas exports to Europe via Soviet-era pipelines running through Ukraine as the transit agreement between the two nations expired on New Year's Day. The shutdown marks a historic moment in European energy relations, ending a decade of tensions since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Ukrainian Energy Minister German Galushchenko described the development as a significant step: “We stopped the transit of Russian gas. This is a historic event. Russia is losing its markets, and it will suffer financial losses. Europe has already decided to abandon Russian gas.”
The decision by Ukraine not to renew the transit deal stems from its ongoing military conflict with Russia, which began in February 2022. The agreement’s termination had been anticipated, with Gazprom—the Russian energy giant—preparing for this scenario in its 2024 operations. The now-defunct route through Ukraine once accounted for half of Russia’s pipeline gas exports to Europe.
With the closure of the Ukrainian transit route, Russia's gas exports to Europe are now limited to the TurkStream pipeline, which runs along the Black Sea and supplies countries like Hungary and Serbia. Europe has also been proactively reducing its reliance on Russian energy by diversifying supply sources.
Nations such as Slovakia and Austria, formerly reliant on Russian gas via Ukraine, have secured alternative energy arrangements. However, Moldova, one of the most affected countries, has announced plans to reduce gas consumption by a third in response to the supply disruption.
The halt in gas transit spells financial losses for both countries. Ukraine stands to lose approximately $800 million annually in transit fees, while Gazprom could forgo nearly $5 billion in gas sales.
Gazprom confirmed the cessation of gas flows, stating, “Due to the repeated and clearly expressed refusal of the Ukrainian side to renew these agreements, Gazprom was deprived of the technical and legal ability to supply gas for transit through the territory of Ukraine from January 1, 2025.”
The closure of the Ukrainian route follows earlier disruptions to other pipelines, including the Yamal-Europe pipeline via Belarus and the Nord Stream pipeline to Germany, which was sabotaged in 2022. Combined, these routes once delivered a record 201 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas to Europe in 2018. By contrast, only 15 bcm of Russian gas was transported through Ukraine in 2023.
The European Union’s push for energy independence since the onset of the conflict has been instrumental in diminishing Russia’s role in the European gas market, which at its peak accounted for 35% of the bloc’s supply.
As Europe adapts to new energy realities, the cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine underscores the geopolitical shifts reshaping the global energy landscape.