As 2025 begins, the war in Ukraine appears to have reached a pivotal moment, marked by rapid Russian advances and growing uncertainty about future U.S. involvement under President-elect Donald Trump. Moscow's forces have steadily gained ground in the Donbas region, displacing civilians and devastating communities in their path. Ukrainian resilience remains strong, but the conflict's trajectory has placed Kyiv under immense strain.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, at his year-end press conference, acknowledged a "dramatic" shift on the front lines. Russia is advancing faster than at any point since its full-scale invasion began in February 2022. Western officials estimate Moscow is suffering staggering losses—about 1,500 soldiers killed or wounded daily—while civilians continue to flee the relentless violence.
Despite asymmetric attacks by Ukraine and international sanctions crippling Russia's economy, with inflation soaring above 9% and interest rates at 23%, Moscow’s war machine remains unyielding.
In Washington, incoming President Trump has sent mixed signals regarding the war. While promising to end the conflict "within 24 hours," he has also criticized escalating U.S. involvement, including the Biden administration’s decision to allow Ukraine to strike Russian targets using U.S.-supplied missiles. Trump’s suggestion that U.S. aid to Ukraine might decrease has alarmed Kyiv, though he has indicated negotiations would require continued American engagement.
Experts warn of significant challenges for the new administration. “Trump inherits a war on a very negative trajectory without a clear theory of success,” said Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has moved quickly to align with the Trump administration. Senior Ukrainian officials have met with Trump’s team, and Zelensky himself secured a meeting with Trump in Paris during the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral.
Zelensky's "Victory Plan," unveiled in October, emphasizes strategic partnerships, including the possibility of Ukraine’s battle-hardened troops replacing U.S. forces in Europe after the war. Yet, Kyiv’s calls for NATO membership and robust security guarantees have met resistance from key allies like the U.S. and Germany.
With NATO membership still elusive, Ukraine faces mounting pressure to explore alternative security guarantees. However, Ukrainian officials insist on mechanisms that include credible military deterrence, dismissing symbolic agreements like the Budapest Memorandum as ineffective.
“There can be no naked ceasefire,” said Orysia Lutsevych of Chatham House. “Zelensky understands Ukraine needs protection against future aggression.”
Amid escalating uncertainty, Ukraine’s allies are bolstering its defenses. NATO has pledged additional air defense systems, and the U.K. has offered to send troops for training. Meanwhile, the Biden administration races to deliver military aid before its departure, while Trump has signaled continued support contingent on NATO members significantly increasing their defense spending.
Western sanctions have failed to decisively cripple Russia’s wartime economy, but rising financial strain could pressure Putin toward negotiations.
As the war enters its third year, Ukraine's position remains precarious. For Kyiv, the stakes are existential: losing territory could spell the end of its sovereignty, while accepting a poorly enforced ceasefire risks future aggression.
With Trump’s presidency set to begin and the conflict’s toll mounting, 2025 could become a turning point. Whether it leads to peace or further escalation depends on a complex interplay of diplomacy, battlefield developments, and international resolve.