Poland began its six-month presidency of the Council of the European Union on Friday, amidst a diplomatic conflict with Hungary that highlights the growing political fragmentation within Europe as it faces numerous global challenges.
The EU, grappling with a sluggish economy, is preparing for the return of Donald Trump to the White House, where he is expected to pursue an "America First" agenda, potentially imposing tariffs on European exports. Additionally, relations with China are deteriorating, and Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine continues to strain the EU. Meanwhile, France and Germany, Europe’s two dominant powers, are distracted by internal political turmoil.
Poland's government excluded Hungary's envoy from the official ceremony marking the beginning of its EU presidency, a move that publicly reflects the escalating tension between the two nations. The dispute stems from Hungary's decision last month to grant asylum to a former Polish deputy justice minister who faces investigation in Poland for alleged misuse of public funds—an act Poland deemed contrary to EU principles, leading to a recall of its ambassador from Budapest.
Hungary’s Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto called Poland's gesture "childish," according to HVG.hu, further highlighting the deepening political rift within Europe. Meanwhile, Slovakia, which, along with Hungary, has maintained some ties with Russia, warned of potential retaliation against Ukraine after the country halted Russian gas transit, and Austria's government formation talks were derailed by the exit of a key party.
In this context, Poland is eager to play a central role in shaping European policy, particularly on security matters. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk aims to lead EU efforts to rally support for Ukraine, pushing for a peace settlement that benefits Kyiv, not Moscow. Tusk, a former European Council president and head of the European People's Party, is well-connected in EU circles, but analysts suggest Poland will struggle to lead alone, given the scale of the EU's challenges.
Piotr Buras, head of the European Council of Foreign Relations’ Warsaw office, emphasized that the EU's current problems exceed the scope of any one presidency, noting that Europe faces critical issues like Trump’s return, the situation in Ukraine, economic competitiveness, and the possibility of a trade war—all while the EU undergoes a leadership transition.
Poland itself faces domestic distractions, with Tusk's primary focus over the next few months being the presidential election in May, where securing victory for his pro-EU camp is paramount. This complicates Poland's ability to lead on EU issues, especially those involving security and relations with Ukraine, as domestic politics may take precedence.
Some analysts predict that Germany could play a more prominent role in Europe's security strategy following its February 23 national election, where the conservatives are expected to win. "The hope is that the new German leadership will adopt a more active and assertive approach," said Peter Bator, former Slovak ambassador to NATO and current chief analyst at Progressive Slovakia.