China’s population has declined for the third consecutive year, with deaths surpassing births despite a slight rise in the latter. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the total population decreased by 1.39 million to 1.408 billion in 2024, compared to 1.409 billion in 2023.

The country recorded 9.54 million births in 2024, a modest increase from 9.02 million in 2023, with the birth rate rising to 6.77 births per 1,000 people from 6.39 per 1,000 in the previous year. Meanwhile, the number of deaths fell slightly to 10.93 million from 11.1 million.

This sustained population decline is raising alarms for the world's second-largest economy, which faces a shrinking labor force and consumer base. Experts warn that escalating costs for elderly care and retirement benefits could exacerbate financial challenges for already debt-ridden local governments.

The aging population continues to grow, with 310.31 million people aged 60 and over in 2024, up from 296.97 million the previous year. By 2035, the retirement-age population is expected to exceed 400 million, potentially straining China's pension system, which the Chinese Academy of Sciences predicts will run out of funds by 2035.

China’s declining birth rate is rooted in longstanding structural challenges, including the legacy of the one-child policy (1980-2015), rapid urbanization, and high costs associated with child-rearing and education. Demographers also cite gender discrimination and societal expectations for women to prioritize household responsibilities as contributing factors.

"Without fundamental structural transformations, from enhancing the social safety net to eliminating gender discrimination, the trend of population decline cannot be reversed," said Yun Zhou, a sociology professor at the University of Michigan.

The government implemented several measures in 2024 to address the population crisis. Universities were urged to integrate "marriage and love education" into their curriculums to promote positive views on marriage, fertility, and family. Additionally, local governments were directed to allocate resources to encourage childbearing and marriage "at the right age."

However, experts remain skeptical about the long-term impact of these initiatives, as structural barriers persist. The number of women of reproductive age (15-49 years) is projected to drop by two-thirds by the end of the century, further complicating efforts to boost birth rates.

Urbanization continued its steady pace, with 943.3 million people residing in cities in 2024, an increase of 10.83 million from the previous year. Meanwhile, the rural population declined to 464.78 million.

Despite a 12.4% rise in marriages in 2023 — a rebound from COVID-19-related delays — experts predict births will decline again in 2025. As policymakers grapple with these challenges, China faces a pivotal moment in addressing its demographic and economic future.