The conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is escalating as Burundi’s military faces off against Rwanda-backed M23 rebels advancing south towards Bukavu, raising concerns of a wider regional war.

Burundi has maintained a military presence in eastern Congo for years, initially targeting Burundian rebel groups but later supporting Kinshasa’s forces against M23. Now, with thousands of Burundian troops reportedly stationed in South Kivu, a potential battle for Bukavu could ignite ethnic tensions and increase the likelihood of direct confrontation between national armies.

After capturing Goma earlier this week, M23 rebels—part of a long history of Tutsi-led insurgencies in the region—are pushing south. Burundi’s forces, estimated between 8,000 to 10,000 troops, are now at the forefront of efforts to halt M23’s advance, particularly near the strategic town of Kavumu, north of Bukavu.

"Today, there are thousands of Burundian soldiers who are fighting against M23 on the front lines," said Jason Stearns, a former U.N. investigator and professor at Simon Fraser University. Burundian troops recently suffered heavy losses in a battle in Nungu, North Kivu, before retreating to South Kivu to regroup.

A Burundian official confirmed the significant presence of its troops in Congo and acknowledged growing requests for assistance from Kinshasa. However, the official, speaking anonymously, urged regional leaders to pursue a ceasefire and diplomatic negotiations.

While Rwanda denies accusations from the United Nations and other sources that it has deployed troops in Congo, Kigali maintains that it will take necessary measures to defend itself. Rwanda has long accused Congo’s military of collaborating with Hutu militias it claims pose a threat to Rwandan security.

Diplomats warn that the conflict could deepen ethnic divisions in Burundi’s own military, which operates under a power-sharing agreement between Hutus and Tutsis as part of the country’s post-civil war peace deal.

Analysts suggest that the situation is becoming increasingly volatile, with both Rwanda and Burundi viewing armed groups in eastern Congo as threats to their national security.

"As soon as Rwanda thinks it is a threat, that becomes a threat to other countries," said Josaphat Musamba, a researcher at Ghent University.

With tensions rising and military confrontations intensifying, regional stability in Central Africa remains at risk. The fate of Bukavu now hangs in the balance, as international observers call for urgent diplomatic intervention to prevent further escalation.