Paris: A recently discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, has a small but rising chance of striking Earth on December 22, 2032. While NASA currently estimates the probability at 3.1%—the highest ever recorded for an asteroid of this size—experts urge the public not to panic. Even in the worst-case scenario, humanity now possesses the technology to deflect or destroy the threat.
Planetary Defense Strategies
Kinetic Impact: Smashing a Spacecraft into It
In 2022, NASA’s DART mission successfully altered the orbit of an asteroid by crashing a spacecraft into it. A similar approach could be used against 2024 YR4, possibly with multiple spacecraft for greater precision. However, experts warn against overdoing it, as breaking the asteroid apart could send dangerous fragments towards Earth.
Gravity Tractors, Ion Beams & Paint
Innovative non-contact solutions include using a gravity tractor—a spacecraft that pulls the asteroid off course using gravitational forces—or firing a stream of ions to gradually shift its trajectory. Scientists have even proposed spray-painting one side of the asteroid white to subtly alter its reflectiveness and course over time.
The Nuclear Option
A nuclear detonation near the asteroid could vaporize part of its surface, pushing it away from Earth. While this may sound like a Hollywood plot, laboratory tests suggest it could work. However, the potential for unpredictable debris and the political challenges of launching nukes into space make it a last-resort solution.
Laser Deflection
Another experimental idea involves using high-powered lasers to heat and vaporize a section of the asteroid, nudging it off its path. Though promising, this technique remains in early research stages.
What If All Else Fails?
Even if no intervention succeeds, experts say the asteroid—measuring between 40 and 90 meters—would not be a "planet killer," but it could destroy an entire city. If necessary, governments would have ample time to prepare, possibly evacuating at-risk areas.
With seven and a half years to act and a 97% chance the asteroid will miss Earth, experts remain optimistic. But one thing is certain: if 2024 YR4 does pose a real threat, humanity is better equipped than ever to face it.